Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:50:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0319…7f42 politics 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$228now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 95% −$13
world 4% $0
economics 1% $0
other 1% −$12
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -2.9% -12.2% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -2.9% -12.2% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 21 -2.9% -12.2% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 25 -5.7% -14.7% 4% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 0% -9.9%
10% -22.9% 0% -18.6%
15% -30.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -37.2% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$228
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage254d
Avg bet$244
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $229 $229 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $397 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $159 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $199 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $587 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $161 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $381 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $188 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $2 $0 -17%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $329 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $162 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $180 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $229 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $3 −$1 -19%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $2 $0 -21%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Feb 11 $15 −$12 -82%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Feb 11 $15 $0 +0%
5kt meteor strike in 2025? Nov 21 $20 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 17 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 1m
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 6h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 7h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $198 8h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 15h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 19h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 21h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 22h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 28h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 31h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 31h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 38h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 40h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 41h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 41h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 42h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 42h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 2d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 2d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 2d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 2d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $188 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 2d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $168 2d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $228.50 · official $228.50 (match) · 108 history records