Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:42:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

03 0x0313…7d27 sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$112 (+12%) realized +$143 · open −$31

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip

Net edge-39%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate38%8W / 13L

Drawdown76%max

Avg bet$37per market

Trades / day10.4pace

Fees−$13est.

Kalshi-fit88%portable

Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-34.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	-27.2%	-34.1%	38%	29%	+5.4%
≤30d	21	-27.2%	-34.1%	38%	29%	+5.4%
≤90d	21	-27.2%	-34.1%	38%	29%	+5.4%
all	21	-27.2%	-34.1%	38%	29%	+5.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.4 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-34.1%	29%	+5.4%
10%	-40.4%	24%	-4.7%
15%	-46.2%	19%	-13.9%
20%	-51.4%	19%	-22.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 41% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -27% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +27% → late -77% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$63 vs −$30 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.28 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$80

Realized+$143

Unrealized−$31

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses8 / 13

Est. fees paid−$13

Open positions5

Markets (closed)21 / 26

History coverage5d

Avg bet$37

Trades / day10.4

Drawdown76%

Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5	Over	91¢	90¢	$55	$54	−$1 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5	Over	87¢	46¢	$30	$16	−$14 (-47%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Over	58¢	12¢	$20	$4	−$16 (-80%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5	Over	75¢	74¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	Over	54¢	52¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5	Jun 19	$55	+$5	+10%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5	Jun 18	$10	−$9	-97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5	Jun 18	$24	−$23	-98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$44	−$43	-98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$25	−$25	-98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5	Jun 18	$10	−$9	-84%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$35	+$11	+32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$99	−$98	-99%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain?	Jun 15	$3	−$3	-97%
Spain leading at halftime?	Jun 15	$20	−$20	-99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5	Jun 15	$31	−$30	-98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$71	−$70	-99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5	Jun 14	$133	+$205	+154%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$20	$0	+1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5	Jun 14	$61	−$51	-84%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5	Jun 14	$117	+$175	+149%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5	Jun 14	$31	+$72	+234%
Germany leading at halftime?	Jun 14	$10	+$2	+18%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	Jun 14	$30	+$35	+116%
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	61¢	$18	1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	89¢	$10	1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	89¢	$18	1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$60	1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	42¢	$3	5h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	69¢	$3	5h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	91¢	$55	5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	91¢	$55	11h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	75¢	$3	11h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	54¢	$3	11h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	10¢	$10	29h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	22¢	$24	29h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	42¢	$44	29h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	31¢	$10	29h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	4¢	$2	29h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$46	29h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	89¢	$10	31h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	24¢	$10	32h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	45¢	$15	32h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	71¢	$25	32h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	44¢	$29	4d
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain?	BUY Yes	11¢	$3	4d
Spain leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	77¢	$20	4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	22¢	$10	4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	37¢	$31	4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	56¢	$71	4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	78¢	$70	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$5	5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5	BUY Over	35¢	$31	5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5	BUY Over	41¢	$41	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.70 · official $79.70 (match) · 56 history records