Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:25:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0313…67db politics 787 markets active 2h ago coverage 636d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Covers last 636d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$775 (+5%) realized +$1,432 · open −$657
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%376W / 403L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,329now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$156
14 days−$157
30 days+$293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% +$378
politics 23% +$224
other 22% +$408
crypto 19% −$668
sports 3% +$441
finance 2% −$99
tech 1% −$2
economics 0% −$27
culture 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -57.1% -61.2% 21% 17% -17.8%
≤30d 80 -21.5% -29.0% 38% 31% +0.6%
≤90d 219 -4.6% -13.7% 47% 44% +19.9%
all 779 -2.6% -11.9% 48% 42% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 42% -1.8%
10% -20.3% 35% -11.2%
15% -28.0% 28% -19.8%
20% -35.0% 24% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$14 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

636d coverage
Net worth$1,329
Realized+$1,432
Unrealized−$657
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses376 / 403
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)779 / 787
History coverage636d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 779 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 55¢ 36¢ $1,986 $1,329 −$657 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $97 +$48 +49%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $182 −$30 -16%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 15 $43 −$13 -30%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $26 $0 +1%
Paris Hilton pregnant in 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 -68%
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -94%
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +64%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 -9%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $4 +$1 +36%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +7%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $111 +$122 +110%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "Elephant" in May? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in May? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
U.S. strike on Nigeria by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ukraine be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump say "Turkey" or "Turkiye" in May? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the second highest grossing movie of Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$49 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $194 −$194 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $2 +$2 +109%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $11 +$1 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $92 −$33 -36%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $480 +$370 +77%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 06 $19 $0 +2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $6 −$1 -11%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $3 $0 -4%
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in May? Jun 04 $17 +$28 +168%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 02 $3 −$1 -42%
Will Trump say "Hawk" in May? Jun 02 $4 +$1 +34%
Will Trump say "Cat" in May? Jun 01 $4 +$6 +170%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $88 +$62 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 39¢ $25 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 39¢ $117 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 39¢ $201 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 46¢ $73 8h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $127 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 66¢ $127 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $62 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $62 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $65 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $35 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $107 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $62 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $6 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $9 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $17 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $28 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $86 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $6 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $47 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $30 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $20 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $2 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $34 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $24 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $2 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $1 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $18 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $55 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $61 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $30 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,328.52 · official $1,328.52 (match) · 3500 history records