Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:29:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0310…ceb4 world 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%16W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$3
politics 16% $0
other 12% $0
sports 9% $0
finance 7% −$1
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 25% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 18 -1.7% -11.1% 17% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 18 -1.7% -11.1% 17% 0% -10.0%
all 48 -0.7% -10.2% 33% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses16 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage270d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $9 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $17 −$4 -21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $40 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $44 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $84 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $36 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $4 $0 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $40 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $80 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $5 $0 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $40 +$1 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $12 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $29 $0 +0%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 10 $14 $0 -3%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Oct 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Oct 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 06 $7 $0 +1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $8 $0 -0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Oct 02 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $22 −$1 -3%
TikTok sale announced by September 30? Sep 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 19 to September 26, Sep 24 $29 $0 +1%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? Sep 23 $1 $0 -4%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2025? Sep 23 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 22 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $40 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $40 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $40 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $40 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $28 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $28 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $13 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $17 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $15 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $15 23d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $40 23d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $40 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $3 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $40 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $44 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $10 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $30 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $5 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $44 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $44 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $44 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $36 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $32 25d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $11 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 148 history records