trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 5 | +6.9% | -3.3% | 20% | 20% | -9.6% |
| all | 24 | +4.4% | -5.5% | 62% | 17% | -9.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -5.5% | 17% | -9.4% |
| 10% | -14.6% | 12% | -18.1% |
| 15% | -22.8% | 8% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -30.4% | 4% | -33.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $75 | $75 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $70 | $70 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? | May 04 | $360 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio | May 04 | $50 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Apr 11 | $280 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? | Apr 11 | $38 | $0 | -0% |
| Will MrBeast hit 470 Million subscribers by March 31? | Apr 08 | $2 | +$1 | +35% |
| Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Feb 17 | $221 | $0 | -0% |
| Will "Solo Mio" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 4m? | Feb 14 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will knots flip bitcoin core by December 31? | Feb 03 | $6 | $0 | +6% |
| Will "Five Nights at Freddy's 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less th | Dec 11 | $2 | $0 | +10% |
| Speed Chess QF: Carlsen vs Caruana | Dec 02 | $6 | $0 | +7% |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by September 30? | Oct 25 | $3 | $0 | +8% |
| East African countries agree to take 100k+ Gazan refugees before July? | Aug 26 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Houthi strike on Israel before August? | Aug 26 | $4 | +$1 | +21% |
| Will "Saturn" by SZA win Best R&B Song? | May 13 | $4 | +$2 | +54% |
| OpenSea airdrop before July? | Feb 02 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Supreme Court vacancy in 2024? | Jan 22 | $4 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Charlotte Hornets win the Eastern Conference? | Dec 19 | $1,180 | −$2 | -0% |
| Will Kamala Harris get less than 68m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidenti | Dec 19 | $8 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Ansem be the biggest loser of The House Poker Night? | Nov 06 | $14 | +$1 | +7% |
| Will Real Madrid beat Atletico Madrid? | Nov 02 | $14 | +$6 | +39% |
| Will stranded astronauts leave the ISS in 2024? | Sep 28 | $2 | $0 | -0% |
| Will there be less than 625 points scored NFL Week 2? | Sep 28 | $1 | $0 | +5% |
| JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee? | Sep 08 | $1 | $0 | +7% |
| Will a Republican win Wyoming Presidential Election? | Aug 06 | $134 | −$1 | -1% |