Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:35:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
03 0x0308…51a9 other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 697d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate62%15W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$3
politics 12% −$1
sports 11% $0
culture 9% $0
crypto 0% $0
world 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 5 +6.9% -3.3% 20% 20% -9.6%
all 24 +4.4% -5.5% 62% 17% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 17% -9.4%
10% -14.6% 12% -18.1%
15% -22.8% 8% -26.0%
20% -30.4% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

697d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses15 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage697d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $75 $75 −$0 (-0%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $360 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 04 $50 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast hit 470 Million subscribers by March 31? Apr 08 $2 +$1 +35%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 17 $221 $0 -0%
Will "Solo Mio" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 4m? Feb 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will knots flip bitcoin core by December 31? Feb 03 $6 $0 +6%
Will "Five Nights at Freddy's 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less th Dec 11 $2 $0 +10%
Speed Chess QF: Carlsen vs Caruana Dec 02 $6 $0 +7%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by September 30? Oct 25 $3 $0 +8%
East African countries agree to take 100k+ Gazan refugees before July? Aug 26 $2 $0 +3%
Houthi strike on Israel before August? Aug 26 $4 +$1 +21%
Will "Saturn" by SZA win Best R&B Song? May 13 $4 +$2 +54%
OpenSea airdrop before July? Feb 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Supreme Court vacancy in 2024? Jan 22 $4 $0 +2%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the Eastern Conference? Dec 19 $1,180 −$2 -0%
Will Kamala Harris get less than 68m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidenti Dec 19 $8 $0 +2%
Will Ansem be the biggest loser of The House Poker Night? Nov 06 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Real Madrid beat Atletico Madrid? Nov 02 $14 +$6 +39%
Will stranded astronauts leave the ISS in 2024? Sep 28 $2 $0 -0%
Will there be less than 625 points scored NFL Week 2? Sep 28 $1 $0 +5%
JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee? Sep 08 $1 $0 +7%
Will a Republican win Wyoming Presidential Election? Aug 06 $134 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $75 1h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $75 1h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $75 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $70 1h
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $180 53d
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio SELL No 100¢ $50 53d
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio BUY No 100¢ $50 56d
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $180 56d
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $180 56d
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $180 56d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $140 76d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 76d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 79d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $140 79d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $139 79d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $140 79d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $221 129d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $221 132d
Will "Solo Mio" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 4m? BUY No 93¢ $1 143d
Will "Solo Mio" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 4m? SELL No 92¢ $1 143d
Will "Solo Mio" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 4m? BUY No 93¢ $1 143d
Will MrBeast hit 470 Million subscribers by March 31? BUY Yes 74¢ $2 197d
Will "Five Nights at Freddy's 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less th BUY No 91¢ $2 206d
Speed Chess QF: Carlsen vs Caruana BUY Carlsen 88¢ $3 234d
Speed Chess QF: Carlsen vs Caruana SELL Carlsen 86¢ $3 234d
Speed Chess QF: Carlsen vs Caruana BUY Carlsen 88¢ $3 234d
Will knots flip bitcoin core by December 31? BUY No 90¢ $3 244d
Will knots flip bitcoin core by December 31? SELL No 89¢ $3 244d
Will knots flip bitcoin core by December 31? BUY No 90¢ $3 244d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by September 30? BUY No 93¢ $3 304d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.08 · official $145.08 (match) · 69 history records