Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:06:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0301…8732 sports 174 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%17W / 156L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$5
other 23% −$3
politics 17% −$3
crypto 10% −$2
economics 7% −$1
culture 6% $0
world 5% −$1
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 173 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses17 / 156
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)173 / 174
History coverage159d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 22, 2026? Yes 94¢ 93¢ $28 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $269 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $26 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $59 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $64 $0 -0%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $76 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 15 $41 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 15 $131 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 15 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 14 $138 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 14 $84 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 13 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 13 $94 −$1 -1%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 13 $201 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 12 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 12 $41 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 12 $142 +$1 +1%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 11 $83 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Mar 11 $34 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 11 $134 $0 -0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Mar 11 $28 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 10 $29 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 10 $133 −$2 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of March? Mar 10 $39 $0 +1%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 08 $68 +$1 +1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 08 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 07 $37 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 07 $30 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 07 $40 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 06 $69 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $123 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 03 $197 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Mar 02 $34 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 02 $187 $0 -0%
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 01 $32 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 01 $198 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 01 $110 −$1 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $32 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 28 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 28 $75 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 27 $31 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Feb 27 $39 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 27 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 26 $68 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $28 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 12d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 92¢ $26 19d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 93¢ $26 19d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $36 27d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $36 27d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $37 35d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $38 35d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $39 94d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $39 95d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $31 95d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $31 95d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $41 95d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $41 95d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 98¢ $31 95d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 98¢ $31 95d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $35 95d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $35 96d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL No 97¢ $41 96d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $41 96d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $40 96d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $40 96d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $37 96d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $38 96d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $37 96d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $37 96d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $30 96d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $30 97d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $40 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.33 · official $27.33 (match) · 706 history records