Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:28:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0300…5cdf politics 91 markets active 0h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,715 (-2%) realized −$1,715 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate12%11W / 78L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,244per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$899now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$11
14 days−$17
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$1,730
politics 31% −$44
sports 27% +$59
world 2% −$15
economics 1% $0
finance 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 63 -6.9% -15.8% 8% 0% -12.2%
all 89 +1.7% -8.0% 12% 7% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 7% -10.9%
10% -16.8% 7% -19.4%
15% -24.9% 6% -27.2%
20% -32.2% 4% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,679) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$30 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$899
Realized−$1,715
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses11 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)89 / 91
History coverage104d
Avg bet$1,244
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $666 $665 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $233 $233 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,262 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $671 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $2,539 −$4 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $2,604 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,452 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $680 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $728 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 04 $361 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $304 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $339 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $374 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $338 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,907 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $882 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $956 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,006 −$2 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $1,012 −$1 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 06 $950 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $830 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,001 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $1,007 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $511 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 01 $521 +$1 +0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $368 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $397 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $1,679 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $2,065 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $763 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $1,524 −$2 -0%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 13 $1,902 −$1,902 -100%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 05 $48 −$12 -25%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 03 $106 $0 +0%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclones Mar 27 $1,116 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 26 $156 −$13 -8%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $1,590 −$2 -0%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 24 $67 −$67 -100%
Nets vs. Kings Mar 24 $97 −$97 -100%
First Round Pool C: Australia vs. South Korea Mar 24 $117 −$117 -100%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $2,935 −$3 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 23 $3,029 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 23 $1,417 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 22 $1,712 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $666 13m
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $720 39m
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $721 2h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $670 21h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $671 27h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $717 2d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $718 3d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $559 3d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $560 3d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $538 3d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $539 3d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $575 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $576 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $743 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $744 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $707 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $708 9d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $679 9d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $680 10d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $727 10d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $728 10d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $617 10d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $618 11d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $563 11d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $563 11d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $486 15d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $486 15d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $476 15d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $477 15d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $304 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $898.94 · official $898.94 (match) · 258 history records