Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:37:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02fc…192f crypto 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$182 (-10%) realized −$182 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%30W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days−$71
14 days−$201
30 days−$201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$260
sports 5% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -14.4% -22.6% 40% 38% -17.2%
≤30d 60 -15.1% -23.2% 43% 40% -21.2%
≤90d 60 -15.1% -23.2% 43% 40% -21.2%
all 71 -18.2% -26.0% 42% 39% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.0% 39% -23.2%
10% -33.1% 38% -30.5%
15% -39.6% 35% -37.2%
20% -45.5% 30% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$22 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$182
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses30 / 41
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 71
History coverage132d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 71 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $1 +$3 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 29 $8 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 29 $35 −$30 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 29 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $21 +$26 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 29 $16 +$6 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 29 $16 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$21 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 26 $32 +$40 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$41 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $68 −$65 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $48 +$88 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $43 +$45 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $75 −$72 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $57 +$79 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $91 −$90 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $61 +$29 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$40 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $106 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$4 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 144 history records