Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:46:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02fa…2f38 crypto 1874 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$436 (-5%) realized −$436 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate77%1498W / 443L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day27.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$199
7 days−$401
14 days−$516
30 days−$541
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$394
other 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 461 -19.0% -26.7% 62% 46% -21.0%
≤30d 1110 -9.0% -17.7% 71% 55% -16.1%
≤90d 1941 -4.5% -13.6% 77% 54% -15.2%
all 1941 -4.5% -13.6% 77% 54% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 54% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 28% -23.3%
15% -29.4% 15% -30.7%
20% -36.3% 8% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$436
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses1498 / 443
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1941 / 1874
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day27.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1941 Trades
no open positions (401 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-31? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Hashiras vs Team Novaq - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bruins vs. Panthers Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -634%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-03-07? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -745%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
FC Utrecht vs. PEC Zwolle: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Blues vs. Sharks Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 8, 1AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$4 -200%
XRP Up or Down - February 7, 7PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Novak Djokovic Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. Czechia Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -2151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -1066%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CF Universidad de Chile vs. CD Universidad de Concepción end in a Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -149%
Leeds United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Grand Canyon Antelopes vs. Nevada Wolf Pack Jun 17 $2 −$4 -200%
Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stag Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 5, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$2 -61%
76ers vs. Heat Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$27 -201%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: DRX Challengers vs DN SOOPers Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Islanders vs. Flyers Jun 17 $1 −$2 -200%
Solana Up or Down - April 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Girona FC vs. Getafe CF: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. Clippers Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 44h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records