Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:54:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
02 0x02fa…04d4 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13,239 (+31%) realized −$193 · open +$13,432
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8,458per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$40,992now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 75d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$12,158
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-55.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.4% -10.8% 50% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 2 -1.4% -10.8% 50% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 4 -50.7% -55.4% 25% 0% -18.1%
all 4 -50.7% -55.4% 25% 0% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -55.4% 0% -18.1%
10% ← realistic here -59.6% 0% -26.0%
15% -63.5% 0% -33.1%
20% -67.1% 0% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$438 vs −$571 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$40,992
Realized−$193
Unrealized+$13,432
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage75d
Avg bet$8,458
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $27,560 $40,992 +$13,432 (+49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $6,390 −$646 -10%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $5,949 +$438 +7%
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $536 −$525 -98%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $1,096 −$541 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $5,744 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $6,390 3h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $6,387 3h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $5,949 9h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $11,442 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $8,200 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $8,679 5d
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-04-07? BUY No 35¢ $536 74d
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-04-07? SELL Yes 61¢ $542 74d
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,096 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40,991.72 · official $40,991.72 (match) · 16 history records