Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:16:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

02 0x02f8…75c1 crypto 22 markets active 1d ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$13 (-10%) realized −$13 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip

Net edge-38%after slip

Net WR14%break-even

Win rate45%10W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$6per market

Trades / day12.3pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit91%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +14%

net ROI/market (all)-33.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	-26.1%	-33.1%	45%	14%	-22.0%
≤30d	22	-26.1%	-33.1%	45%	14%	-22.0%
≤90d	22	-26.1%	-33.1%	45%	14%	-22.0%
all	22	-26.1%	-33.1%	45%	14%	-22.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.3 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-33.1%	14%	-22.0%
10%	-39.5%	9%	-29.5%
15%	-45.4%	9%	-36.3%
20%	-50.7%	5%	-42.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 50% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -26% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -17% → late -35% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.31 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$13

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)45%

Wins / losses10 / 12

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)22 / 22

History coverage5d

Avg bet$6

Trades / day12.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 22 Trades

no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Jun 16	$2	−$1	-69%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Jun 16	$1	$0	-44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Jun 16	$1	$0	+5%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Jun 16	$4	$0	+4%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	Jun 16	$1	$0	-27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Jun 16	$4	−$2	-48%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-78%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 11	$1	+$1	+134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Jun 11	$5	−$5	-95%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	Jun 11	$2	$0	-13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Jun 11	$5	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Jun 11	$10	+$4	+40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Jun 11	$5	−$5	-91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Jun 11	$11	−$5	-50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Jun 11	$5	−$5	-95%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 11	$5	$0	-6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Jun 11	$10	+$1	+13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Jun 11	$10	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Jun 11	$15	$0	+0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Jun 11	$25	+$1	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Jun 11	$10	$0	+4%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	BUY Up	16¢	$1	32h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	SELL Yes	4¢	$1	32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	SELL Up	31¢	$1	32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	BUY Up	45¢	$1	32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	SELL Up	84¢	$1	33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	BUY Up	78¢	$1	33h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	SELL Down	71¢	$2	33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$2	33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	SELL Up	63¢	$2	33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$2	33h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	SELL Yes	4¢	$1	33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	BUY Down	26¢	$2	33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	SELL Up	72¢	$3	33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$2	33h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	SELL No	1¢	$0	33h
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Knicks	100¢	$2	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	BUY Up	20¢	$5	6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	BUY Yes	5¢	$1	6d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	BUY Yes	6¢	$1	6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY No	5¢	$1	6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	SELL Yes	5¢	$2	6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	BUY Yes	5¢	$2	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	SELL Up	69¢	$5	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	BUY Up	65¢	$5	6d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	42¢	$1	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	SELL Up	83¢	$8	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	BUY Up	54¢	$5	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	SELL Up	57¢	$7	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$5	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 65 history records