Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:09:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02f8…9712 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,194 (-7%) realized −$2,308 · open +$114
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate88%21W / 3L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,213per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$1,639now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$638
7 days−$2,229
14 days−$2,151
30 days−$2,151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$10
sports 36% −$2,027
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -6.6% -15.5% 86% 14% -16.8%
≤30d 24 -4.1% -13.3% 88% 17% -16.3%
≤90d 24 -4.1% -13.3% 88% 17% -16.3%
all 24 -4.1% -13.3% 88% 17% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 17% -16.3%
10% -21.6% 4% -24.3%
15% -29.1% 4% -31.6%
20% -36.1% 0% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$1,416) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$1,315 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1,639
Realized−$2,308
Unrealized+$114
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses21 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage8d
Avg bet$1,213
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Over 93¢ 100¢ $1,525 $1,639 +$114 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,416 +$113 +8%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,401 +$14 +1%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,307 +$95 +7%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,242 +$63 +5%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,157 +$85 +7%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,053 +$106 +10%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,020 +$33 +3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $946 +$74 +8%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $891 +$55 +6%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $2,057 −$2,052 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,797 +$258 +14%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $431 −$424 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,901 −$1,469 -77%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,793 +$105 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,605 +$178 +11%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,382 +$235 +17%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $601 +$18 +3%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1,263 +$99 +8%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,191 +$74 +6%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,145 +$46 +4%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $1,112 +$32 +3%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $1,080 +$32 +3%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $899 +$32 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $104 +$45 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 93¢ $1,528 57m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $1,529 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 92¢ $1,416 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 99¢ $1,401 3h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $1,307 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 95¢ $1,242 27h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $1,157 31h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $1,053 43h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 97¢ $1,020 46h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,021 46h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $946 46h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $891 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 93¢ $2,057 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $2,055 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 87¢ $1,797 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $431 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 18¢ $184 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 25¢ $248 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,901 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,793 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $1,783 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 90¢ $1,605 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $1,617 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $1,382 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $619 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 96¢ $601 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,362 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $1,263 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $1,265 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $1,191 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,638.96 · official $1,638.96 (match) · 49 history records