Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:12:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
02 0x02f3…5867 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$38 (-19%) realized −$36 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 99d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$17
world 21% −$41
crypto 13% $0
sports 5% $0
finance 5% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +86.1% +68.4% 67% 67% +37.9%
≤30d 3 +86.1% +68.4% 67% 67% +37.9%
≤90d 3 +86.1% +68.4% 67% 67% +37.9%
all 7 -20.3% -27.8% 29% 29% -43.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.8% 29% -43.8%
10% -34.8% 29% -49.2%
15% -41.1% 29% -54.1%
20% -46.8% 29% -58.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$12 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized−$36
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)7 / 15
History coverage99d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31? Mar 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13? Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $12 16h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 16h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 16h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 16h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 16h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 16h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 16h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 16h
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $26 99d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 99d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 99d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.80 · official $109.80 (match) · 18 history records