Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:42:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02f1…d812 weather 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 63% −$1
weather 37% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -2.5% -11.8% 0% 0% -11.8%
≤30d 1 -2.5% -11.8% 0% 0% -11.8%
≤90d 1 -2.5% -11.8% 0% 0% -11.8%
all 1 -2.5% -11.8% 0% 0% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 0% -11.8%
10% -20.2% 0% -20.2%
15% -27.9% 0% -27.9%
20% -35.0% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 20? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 20? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $16 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 20? BUY Yes 92¢ $15 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? SELL Yes 95¢ $16 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 97¢ $16 1h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $80 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 89¢ $15 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.26 · official $110.26 (match) · 5 history records