Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:21:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02ee…0938 crypto 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 593d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3,789 (-8%) realized −$9,562 · open +$5,773
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate26%9W / 26L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,256per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$12,552now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$349
14 days+$690
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$1,683
crypto 31% −$4,494
politics 20% +$1,723
economics 7% −$2,218
world 4% −$509
culture 2% −$256
sports 1% −$648
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-53.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -21.5% -29.0% 33% 33% +13.9%
≤30d 6 -11.3% -19.7% 50% 17% -10.1%
≤90d 9 -40.8% -46.5% 33% 11% -28.8%
all 35 -48.2% -53.2% 26% 17% -35.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.2% 17% -35.4%
10% -57.7% 14% -41.6%
15% -61.7% 11% -47.2%
20% -65.5% 9% -52.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$1,300) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -52% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$389 vs −$538 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

593d coverage
Net worth$12,552
Realized−$9,562
Unrealized+$5,773
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses9 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)35 / 39
History coverage593d
Avg bet$1,256
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ $703 $4,245 +$3,542 (+504%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $3,726 $3,881 +$156 (+4%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,200 $3,850 +$2,650 (+221%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,150 $575 −$575 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $515 −$272 -53%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $772 +$682 +88%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $510 +$47 +9%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $3,509 +$294 +8%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $3,626 −$745 -20%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Apr 18 $2,036 −$2,036 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 February 9-15? Mar 31 $311 −$311 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 February 9-15? Mar 31 $22 −$22 -100%
Lions vs. Bengals Jan 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118,000 and $120,000 on October Jan 29 $127 −$127 -100%
49ers vs. Seahawks Jan 29 $488 −$488 -100%
Will there be 14 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jan 25 $107 −$65 -61%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 23 $767 −$194 -25%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 23 $570 +$336 +59%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 08 $523 +$353 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down on October 22? Oct 22 $2,091 −$2,026 -97%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 October 20-26? Oct 22 $611 −$484 -79%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 October 20-26? Oct 22 $1,250 −$900 -72%
Will Ethereum reach $4,700 October 20-26? Oct 22 $350 −$272 -78%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 14 $808 +$116 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Oct 13 $3,794 +$1,355 +36%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 09 $1,032 −$256 -25%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Oct 01 $517 −$517 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Oct 01 $1,300 −$1,300 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Aug 22 $1,845 −$509 -28%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Aug 22 $386 −$301 -78%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 17 $1,169 −$182 -16%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 11 $4,142 +$162 +4%
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? Jul 09 $161 −$161 -100%
Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election? Jul 09 $401 −$401 -100%
Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? Jul 09 $1,938 −$1,938 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo run as a non-Democrat in the general election? Jul 02 $500 +$160 +32%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 25 $275 −$208 -76%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Feb 18 $122 −$122 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $233 42m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $252 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $485 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $343 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $606 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $35 2h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 2h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $113 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $26 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $192 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $33 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $302 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1,879 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $296 3d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $243 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $357 4d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $193 4d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,551.66 · official $12,551.66 (match) · 764 history records