Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:39:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

02 0x02eb…a47a sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$1,232 (-38%) realized −$1,278 · open +$46

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip

Net edge-37%after slip

Net WR21%break-even

Win rate21%7W / 27L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$90per market

Trades / day3.1pace

Fees−$66est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$237

7 days−$1,083

14 days−$1,312

30 days−$1,312

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +21%

net ROI/market (all)-34.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	27	-24.9%	-32.1%	22%	22%	-48.9%
≤30d	34	-27.9%	-34.7%	21%	21%	-47.2%
≤90d	34	-27.9%	-34.7%	21%	21%	-47.2%
all	34	-27.9%	-34.7%	21%	21%	-47.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-34.7%	21%	-47.2%
10%	-41.0%	21%	-52.2%
15%	-46.7%	21%	-56.8%
20%	-51.9%	21%	-61.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 32% · top 2 57% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -28% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -60% → late +4% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$190 vs −$98 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.5 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage

Net worth$118

Realized−$1,278

Unrealized+$46

Win rate (resolved)21%

Wins / losses7 / 27

Est. fees paid−$66

Open positions2

Markets (closed)34 / 36

History coverage11d

Avg bet$90

Trades / day3.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 34 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	Under	44¢	100¢	$36	$82	+$46 (+127%)
France vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	Over	44¢	44¢	$36	$36	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5	Jun 28	$34	+$71	+206%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score	Jun 28	$35	+$53	+152%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5	Jun 28	$35	+$113	+325%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5	Jun 27	$38	−$38	-100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	Jun 27	$102	−$102	-100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 27	$102	−$102	-100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5	Jun 27	$102	−$102	-100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5	Jun 26	$102	−$102	-100%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5	Jun 26	$102	+$176	+172%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5	Jun 26	$102	+$424	+414%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	Jun 26	$102	−$102	-100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	Jun 26	$102	−$102	-100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5	Jun 26	$102	−$102	-100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5	Jun 25	$102	−$102	-100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5	Jun 25	$102	−$102	-100%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5)	Jun 25	$102	−$102	-100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5	Jun 25	$102	−$102	-100%
Spread: Morocco (-3.5)	Jun 25	$102	−$102	-100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5	Jun 24	$102	−$102	-100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Jun 24	$102	−$102	-100%
Spread: England (-1.5)	Jun 23	$102	+$161	+158%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 23	$102	−$102	-100%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5)	Jun 23	$102	−$102	-100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 23	$102	−$102	-100%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score	Jun 23	$102	−$102	-100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5	Jun 23	$102	−$102	-100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5	Jun 23	$102	−$102	-100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5	Jun 22	$102	−$102	-100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$102	+$332	+325%
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5)	Jun 21	$102	−$102	-100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$102	−$102	-100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5	Jun 19	$102	−$102	-100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5	Jun 19	$51	−$51	-100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$102	−$102	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
France vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	44¢	$37	1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	44¢	$37	21h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	32¢	$34	2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	23¢	$35	2d
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	39¢	$35	2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	40¢	$38	3d
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	35¢	$102	3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	19¢	$102	3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	BUY Spain	39¢	$102	3d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	26¢	$102	3d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	19¢	$102	3d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	36¢	$102	3d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	30¢	$102	4d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	21¢	$102	4d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	42¢	$102	4d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	22¢	$102	4d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	31¢	$102	4d
Spread: Morocco (-3.5)	BUY Morocco	21¢	$102	5d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5)	BUY Morocco	39¢	$102	5d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	27¢	$102	5d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	45¢	$102	5d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	25¢	$102	5d
Spread: England (-1.5)	BUY Ghana	38¢	$102	6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Uzbekistan	34¢	$102	6d
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	22¢	$102	7d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	19¢	$102	7d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5)	BUY Algeria	38¢	$102	7d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	33¢	$102	7d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	33¢	$102	7d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	28¢	$102	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.00 · official $118.00 (match) · 70 history records