Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:29:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

02
0x02eb…d124
crypto · 693 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$179 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$194 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$214
Realized+$194
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses315 / 355
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions23
Markets (closed)670 / 693
History coverage19d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day61.8
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 23 History 670 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$89
7 days+$42
14 days+$289
30 days+$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 84¢ 78¢ $38 $35 −$3 (-7%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Yes 51¢ 39¢ $36 $28 −$8 (-23%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 42¢ 76¢ $10 $17 +$8 (+80%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 89¢ 93¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Yes 76¢ 90¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 50¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 33¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 10¢ 11¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Yes 24¢ 10¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-60%)
Will Kenyan McDuffie win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? No 68¢ 42¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-39%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $20 −$5 -25%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $30 −$16 -55%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 12 $45 −$11 -24%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 12 $56 −$12 -21%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $15 −$6 -41%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 12 $13 −$10 -78%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 12 $15 −$8 -56%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$9 -84%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -48%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 12 $10 −$6 -64%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -62%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 11 $10 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +100%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 10 $15 +$17 +112%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 10 $15 −$5 -30%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$4 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$3 +108%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$2 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $27 −$12 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$2 +88%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $25 +$15 +60%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $37 +$27 +72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $30 +$80 +266%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June? Jun 07 $8 −$1 -17%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 06 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 06 $5 −$2 -40%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $5 +$10 +194%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$2 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $10 +$6 +58%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 05 $3 +$2 +96%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $13B and $16B at market close Jun 05 $12 +$143 +1181%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$3 +108%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$3 +113%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$3 +113%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 05 $4 +$5 +113%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 05 $1 +$4 +245%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 65% +$112
other 12% +$132
world 8% −$67
weather 4% −$32
politics 4% +$54
tech 3% −$12
finance 3% −$8
sports 2% +$9
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 60¢ $21 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $13 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL No 51¢ $22 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $3 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 53¢ $4 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 1h
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz SELL Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz SELL Yes 21¢ $6 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 11¢ $3 2h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $5 3h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $3 3h
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY Yes 25¢ $7 3h
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY Yes 25¢ $1 3h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL Yes 32¢ $4 3h
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4h
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4h
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY Yes 25¢ $4 4h
Will Kenyan McDuffie win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 7h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $7 11h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 11h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 13h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 14h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 15h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 15h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +4.4% -5.5% 37% 37% -1.2%
≤30d 670 +1.6% -8.1% 47% 47% -1.2%
≤90d 670 +1.6% -8.1% 47% 47% -1.2%
all 670 +1.6% -8.1% 47% 47% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover61.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 47% -1.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 46% -10.6%
15% -24.9% 46% -19.3%
20% -32.2% 45% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.37 · official $214.23 (match) · 1574 history records