trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 85¢ | $400,000 | $680,400 | +$280,400 (+70%) |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 99¢ | $380,634 | $383,939 | +$3,305 (+1%) |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 15¢ | $400,000 | $119,600 | −$280,400 (-70%) |
| JD Vance out as VP by June 30? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $3,634 | $3,644 | +$9 (+0%) |
| Raptors vs. Cavaliers | Raptors | 2¢ | 0¢ | $430 | $0 | −$430 (-100%) |
| Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5 | Under | 48¢ | 0¢ | $1,449 | $0 | −$1,449 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raptors vs. Cavaliers | Jun 12 | $430 | −$430 | -100% |
| Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5 | Jun 12 | $1,449 | −$1,449 | -100% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 04 | $14,092,394 | +$67,101 | +0% |
| US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? | Jun 02 | $3,427 | +$228 | +7% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? | Jun 01 | $31,650 | +$78 | +0% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | Jun 01 | $151,920 | +$764,816 | +503% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | May 30 | $45,561 | +$46 | +0% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? | May 30 | $14,357 | +$2,400 | +17% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +41.0% | +27.5% | 75% | 25% | -4.3% |
| ≤90d | 8 | +41.0% | +27.5% | 75% | 25% | -4.3% |
| all | 8 | +41.0% | +27.5% | 75% | 25% | -4.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +27.5% | 25% | -4.3% |
| 10% | +15.3% | 12% | -13.4% |
| 15% ← realistic here | +4.2% | 12% | -21.8% |
| 20% | -6.0% | 12% | -29.5% |