Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:18:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

02 0x02e7…51d8 sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 254d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$465 (-16%) realized −$517 · open +$52

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip

Net edge-27%after slip

Net WR17%break-even

Win rate33%2W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$414per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit71%portable

Net worth$435now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +17%

net ROI/market (all)-27.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	6	-19.5%	-27.2%	33%	17%	-26.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-27.2%	17%	-26.6%
10%	-34.2%	17%	-33.6%
15%	-40.5%	17%	-40.0%
20%	-46.4%	17%	-45.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 86% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -20% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$10 vs −$123 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.04 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage

Net worth$435

Realized−$517

Unrealized+$52

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses2 / 4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage254d

Avg bet$414

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	No	87¢	99¢	$384	$435	+$52 (+13%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Lightning vs. Stars	Jan 18	$392	−$392	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025?	Dec 26	$142	−$93	-65%
Spread: Dolphins (-2.5)	Dec 26	$3	+$3	+96%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 m	Dec 26	$1,582	+$18	+1%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Nov 16	$346	$0	-0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026?	Oct 16	$48	−$7	-14%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	87¢	$385	2h
Lightning vs. Stars	BUY Stars	49¢	$392	159d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025?	BUY Yes	14¢	$84	182d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025?	SELL Yes	11¢	$50	182d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025?	BUY Yes	13¢	$58	182d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 m	BUY Yes	99¢	$86	193d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 m	BUY Yes	99¢	$1,496	193d
Spread: Dolphins (-2.5)	BUY Dolphins	51¢	$3	222d
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	SELL No	100¢	$346	222d
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	BUY No	100¢	$346	222d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026?	SELL Yes	1¢	$41	253d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026?	BUY Yes	1¢	$48	253d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $435.27 · official $435.27 (match) · 14 history records