Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:27:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
02 0x02e0…9633 sports 190 markets active 1h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$201 (+7%) realized +$186 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate60%104W / 68L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$224now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$166
14 days+$201
30 days+$186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$231
other 20% −$30
crypto 4% +$17
world 2% +$2
politics 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +9.7% -0.7% 62% 48% +8.5%
≤30d 66 +6.3% -3.8% 61% 48% +5.6%
≤90d 149 +2.5% -7.3% 60% 55% -2.2%
all 172 +1.9% -7.8% 60% 56% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 56% -2.4%
10% -16.6% 55% -11.8%
15% -24.7% 50% -20.3%
20% -32.1% 35% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$224
Realized+$186
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses104 / 68
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions18
Markets (closed)172 / 190
History coverage270d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 100¢ $35 $47 +$12 (+35%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 68¢ 100¢ $25 $37 +$12 (+48%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots Yes 57¢ 49¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28? Yes 43¢ 38¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 48¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score No 64¢ 64¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-3.5) Côte dIvoire 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Under 39¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 38¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score No 50¢ 46¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Under 43¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 36¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $6 −$1 -14%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $6 −$1 -11%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $6 −$1 -10%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$4 +40%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $35 +$15 +44%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $6 −$1 -13%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $25 −$25 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $35 +$15 +44%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $25 +$16 +65%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $6 $0 +1%
Spread: France (-4.5) Jun 22 $6 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 AND New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt Jun 22 $10 +$9 +88%
Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots Jun 21 $25 +$19 +73%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $25 +$11 +44%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ shots Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $25 +$10 +42%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $25 +$28 +109%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $6 −$1 -15%
Kai Havertz: 3+ shots Jun 20 $20 +$14 +67%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $25 +$12 +48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $25 +$16 +62%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $25 +$15 +60%
Cody Gakpo: 3+ shots Jun 20 $25 +$21 +83%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $35 +$24 +67%
Donyell Malen: 3+ shots Jun 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 20 $6 $0 +2%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $50 −$50 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) Jun 20 $5 −$1 -18%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $6 $0 -3%
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) Jun 20 $6 $0 +7%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 20 $6 $0 +5%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 19 $6 $0 +1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $33 +$11 +34%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 +$11 +105%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $10 +$7 +72%
Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots Jun 18 $25 +$11 +44%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 $0 -6%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$11 +44%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 17 $6 $0 -4%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $6 $0 -4%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $25 +$23 +90%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$9 +36%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 +$12 +57%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $25 +$13 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $25 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $35 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots BUY Yes 57¢ $25 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $6 3h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL No 42¢ $5 7h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 37¢ $5 7h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 39¢ $5 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 9h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $14 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 11h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $6 12h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $6 16h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 36¢ $5 19h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $35 21h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $25 21h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $35 26h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $25 26h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $6 31h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 52¢ $6 32h
Spread: France (-4.5) SELL France 20¢ $6 38h
Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots BUY Yes 57¢ $25 47h
Jeremy Doku: 1+ shots BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $25 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 AND New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt BUY 52¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.44 · official $224.26 (match) · 323 history records