Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:08:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02e0…cf4d other 157 markets active 2h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%15W / 142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 25% −$4
other 24% −$5
sports 22% −$6
crypto 10% −$2
culture 7% −$2
economics 6% −$1
world 3% $0
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 4 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 11% 0% -9.7%
all 157 -0.2% -9.7% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses15 / 142
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)157 / 157
History coverage173d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 157 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 27 $47 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $272 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 29 $38 −$1 -2%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $43 $0 +0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $85 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $312 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $142 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $162 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Apr 06 $91 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 06 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 06 $77 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 05 $91 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 05 $93 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 05 $76 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 05 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Apr 04 $138 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 04 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Apr 04 $83 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 04 $91 $0 -0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $42 $0 -1%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 03 $42 $0 -0%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 03 $48 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 03 $189 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $77 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 01 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Apr 01 $40 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $37 $0 +0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 01 $86 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 31 $93 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $91 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 30 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 30 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 29 $195 −$1 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 29 $39 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $147 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 28 $131 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 28 $152 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Mar 28 $106 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 27 $47 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $52 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $175 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 26 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $47 $0 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 24 $47 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 23 $221 $0 -0%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $52 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 96¢ $47 1h
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 97¢ $47 9h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $45 7d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $45 8d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $36 16d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $36 16d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 95¢ $37 28d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 29d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $40 40d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $40 40d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $43 80d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $43 81d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $35 81d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $36 81d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $39 81d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $39 81d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 94¢ $47 81d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 94¢ $47 81d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $36 81d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $37 81d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $36 81d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $36 82d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? SELL No 98¢ $44 82d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? BUY No 98¢ $44 82d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 82d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 82d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $39 82d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $39 83d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $37 83d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 589 history records