Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:16:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
02 0x02e0…3741 sports 262 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,757 (-15%) realized −$1,722 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%99W / 138L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$155est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days−$501
14 days−$104
30 days−$1,011
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$612
other 17% −$541
crypto 7% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -24.0% -31.3% 38% 38% -41.5%
≤30d 202 -5.5% -14.5% 42% 41% -19.5%
≤90d 237 -8.7% -17.4% 42% 41% -19.2%
all 237 -8.7% -17.4% 42% 41% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 41% -19.2%
10% -25.3% 40% -26.9%
15% -32.5% 37% -34.0%
20% -39.2% 35% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$37 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$1,722
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses99 / 138
Est. fees paid−$155
Open positions2
Markets (closed)237 / 262
History coverage35d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 237 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $80 $70 −$10 (-12%)
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays New York Mets 30¢ 10¢ $39 $14 −$25 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 97 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Ne Jun 29 $30 +$29 +95%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Jun 29 $20 +$18 +88%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Jun 29 $20 +$16 +81%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $41 +$33 +82%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $39 +$38 +97%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Jun 28 $30 +$23 +76%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $34 +$37 +109%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. P Jun 28 $20 −$20 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5 Jun 28 $6 −$5 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 28 $70 −$27 -38%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $61 −$60 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs Jun 27 $25 −$25 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies Jun 27 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $40 +$22 +54%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs Jun 26 $30 −$30 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies Jun 26 $20 +$18 +89%
France leading at halftime? Jun 26 $19 +$13 +70%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 26 $51 +$29 +58%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. New Jun 25 $16 −$16 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 25 $28 −$27 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $41 −$40 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies Jun 24 $20 +$16 +79%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$27 +131%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 24 $144 −$81 -56%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $61 −$61 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 24 $48 −$48 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 24 $47 −$47 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $33 −$33 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 24 $76 −$73 -97%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $40 −$39 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs Jun 23 $20 +$20 +97%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $77 −$75 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $31 +$35 +114%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $19 +$85 +440%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $78 −$76 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Jun 21 $18 +$16 +84%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals v Jun 21 $31 +$30 +97%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 21 $101 +$54 +53%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Sweden Jun 20 $61 +$50 +82%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $26 −$26 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Jun 20 $41 +$32 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $81 13m
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Mets 30¢ $40 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Ne SELL Yes 99¢ $59 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Ne BUY Yes 50¢ $30 2h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs SELL Yes 99¢ $38 2h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. SELL Yes 99¢ $37 2h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs BUY Yes 52¢ $20 2h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY Yes 54¢ $20 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Morocco: BUY 8¢ $17 5h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on 2 BUY 41¢ $17 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 6h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 100¢ $77 6h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 50¢ $39 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 54¢ $41 8h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Ger BUY 7¢ $14 20h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. SELL No 100¢ $54 25h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. BUY No 56¢ $30 25h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 100¢ $70 27h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 47¢ $34 31h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. P BUY Yes 52¢ $20 31h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY 47¢ $30 32h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers AND Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago W BUY 3¢ $12 42h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 47¢ $6 46h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 32¢ $15 46h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Baltimore Orioles 26¢ $19 46h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 27¢ $20 46h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Baltimore Orioles 23¢ $22 47h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 34¢ $35 47h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $61 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.87 · official $85.65 · 437 history records