Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:23:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02df…99bb crypto 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$144 (-14%) realized −$151 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$203
other 7% +$52
sports 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -25.6% -32.7% 47% 41% -23.6%
≤30d 17 -25.6% -32.7% 47% 41% -23.6%
≤90d 17 -25.6% -32.7% 47% 41% -23.6%
all 17 -25.6% -32.7% 47% 41% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.7% 41% -23.6%
10% ← realistic here -39.1% 35% -30.9%
15% -45.0% 29% -37.6%
20% -50.4% 24% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$39 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$151
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 63¢ 100¢ $13 $20 +$7 (+59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $102 +$49 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$21 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 27 $229 −$70 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 27 $130 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 27 $154 +$40 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$25 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 27 $8 +$4 +52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $71 +$52 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 42m
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $165 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $8 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 57¢ $71 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.99 · official $19.99 (match) · 42 history records