Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:44:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

02
0x02de…8a75
crypto · 211 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$468 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$461 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$43
Realized−$461
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses93 / 117
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)210 / 211
History coverage12d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day268.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 210 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$507
7 days+$305
14 days−$461
30 days−$461
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Down 64¢ 56¢ $49 $43 −$7 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$185 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $52 +$41 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$14 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$10 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $51 +$22 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $69 +$35 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $165 +$178 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $88 −$58 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $55 −$49 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $126 −$115 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $136 +$52 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $19 +$63 +328%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$14 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $52 +$57 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $106 −$101 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$9 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$51 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $136 +$228 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $98 +$76 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $58 −$15 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$10 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$6 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $86 +$61 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $211 −$211 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $94 +$118 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $208 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $235 +$257 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $22 +$39 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $146 −$146 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $138 −$112 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $143 +$384 +269%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $220 −$122 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $176 +$45 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$19 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$4 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $148 +$79 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $194 −$28 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $135 +$74 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $17 +$13 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% −$346
sports 2% −$122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $49 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $13 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $25 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $6 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $3 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 -3.6% -12.8% 43% 43% -5.4%
≤30d 210 +0.5% -9.0% 44% 42% -12.8%
≤90d 210 +0.5% -9.0% 44% 42% -12.8%
all 210 +0.5% -9.0% 44% 42% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover268.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 42% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 40% -21.1%
15% -25.7% 38% -28.7%
20% -33.0% 35% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.75 · official $42.75 (match) · 3500 history records