Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:50:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
02 0x02dd…6359 other 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+4%) realized +$12 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate46%25W / 29L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$6
other 33% −$12
crypto 12% +$1
politics 10% +$11
sports 3% +$5
tech 2% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -38.5% -44.3% 33% 25% -29.8%
≤30d 20 -32.6% -39.0% 35% 30% -23.1%
≤90d 54 +0.5% -9.0% 46% 39% -6.0%
all 54 +0.5% -9.0% 46% 39% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 39% -6.0%
10% -17.7% 35% -15.0%
15% -25.7% 31% -23.2%
20% -33.0% 26% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses25 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)54 / 63
History coverage82d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
X banned in any European country by December 31? No 69¢ 80¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +262%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $4 +$2 +50%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $10 +$5 +53%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $5 +$11 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? May 10 $25 −$8 -33%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 10 $5 $0 +4%
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliam May 10 $5 −$1 -12%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary e May 10 $5 −$2 -38%
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 10 $5 −$1 -15%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 May 10 $3 $0 -5%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 10 $1 $0 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 09 $5 −$1 -18%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? Apr 25 $5 −$2 -40%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $5 +$3 +55%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 22 $10 −$8 -79%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 14 to Apr Apr 22 $5 +$12 +246%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $5 +$4 +84%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $10 −$6 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 19 $1 +$1 +121%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 18 $15 −$2 -14%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 18 $10 +$2 +24%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 18 $5 +$9 +175%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 14 $5 +$3 +59%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? Apr 08 $5 +$1 +19%
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026? Apr 08 $5 +$7 +148%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $5 +$2 +35%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $22 +$8 +39%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? Mar 27 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $5 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 2d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $12 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 4d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 14d
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 14d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 14d
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 14d
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 35d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 36d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 36d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $17 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.06 · official $29.06 (match) · 120 history records