Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:43:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
02 0x02db…b062 sports 71 markets active 5h ago coverage 207d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$149 (+3%) realized +$149 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate62%44W / 27L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days+$246
14 days+$131
30 days+$204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$183
crypto 13% +$5
other 11% −$65
world 2% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -11.5% -20.0% 60% 40% -3.5%
≤30d 49 -6.4% -15.3% 65% 37% -5.5%
≤90d 49 -6.4% -15.3% 65% 37% -5.5%
all 71 -3.4% -12.6% 62% 38% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 38% -7.0%
10% -21.0% 27% -15.9%
15% -28.6% 17% -24.0%
20% -35.6% 13% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$21 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$149
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses44 / 27
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 71
History coverage207d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 71 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$22 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$12 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $33 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$2 +11%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$5 +78%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $36 +$9 +26%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $234 −$60 -26%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $76 +$21 +28%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $276 +$12 +4%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $141 −$74 -52%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $135 +$3 +2%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $95 +$35 +37%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $609 +$170 +28%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $424 +$107 +25%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $193 +$3 +2%
Overwatch: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - OCS China Stage 2 Seeding Jun 13 $273 −$13 -5%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $226 +$38 +17%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $314 +$79 +25%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $297 +$19 +6%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $21 −$11 -54%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $27 −$13 -47%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $12 +$1 +10%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$3 +11%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Israel win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $102 +$15 +14%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $162 +$30 +19%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $46 +$25 +54%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 31 $32 +$32 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 31 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 31 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 31 $57 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 31 $51 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 31 $52 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 31 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 31 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 31 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 31 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET May 31 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 31 $21 +$9 +44%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $9 +$11 +129%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $40 −$21 -52%
Pistons vs. Pacers Nov 24 $8 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $18 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $21 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $19 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $34 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $33 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $21 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $19 5h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 50¢ $11 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $11 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 56¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 77¢ $46 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 99¢ $45 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 78¢ $36 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 99¢ $37 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 94¢ $35 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 21¢ $35 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 60¢ $12 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 60¢ $90 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 74¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 335 history records