Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:53:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
02 0x02db…7885 other 335 markets active 1h ago coverage 625d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized +$36 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%129W / 189L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$92
7 days+$133
14 days+$75
30 days+$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$24
sports 23% +$36
politics 4% +$11
crypto 3% +$31
world 1% −$14
tech 1% −$14
economics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +2.9% -6.9% 42% 42% +3.4%
≤30d 68 +39.6% +26.3% 44% 44% -3.6%
≤90d 165 -2.0% -11.3% 36% 35% -10.9%
all 318 +7.4% -2.9% 41% 39% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 39% -8.5%
10% -12.2% 38% -17.2%
15% -20.6% 36% -25.2%
20% -28.4% 35% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

625d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized+$36
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses129 / 189
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions17
Markets (closed)318 / 335
History coverage625d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 318 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 58¢ $137 $126 −$12 (-9%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+62%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 16¢ 21¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+32%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 28¢ 60¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+114%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-8%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 52¢ 38¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 35¢ 21¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 20¢ 6¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-72%)
Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027? Yes 34¢ 10¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-72%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026? Yes 35¢ 9¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 36¢ 10¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-74%)
Will Waymo launch in Detroit by June 30 2026? Yes 15¢ 1¢ $4 $0 −$3 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $102 +$37 +36%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 +$37 +712%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $40 −$40 -99%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 +$17 +17%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $12 +$8 +67%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $41 +$55 +134%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $47 +$16 +35%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $10 +$20 +197%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $15 +$11 +74%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $60 +$31 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 +$8 +79%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $83 +$47 +57%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $67 +$21 +31%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$8 +156%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $7 +$26 +365%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$12 +114%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 +$37 +365%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $90 −$89 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$28 +93%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 +$14 +697%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $74 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 87¢ $65 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $102 3h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 7h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 7h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $40 7h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $10 7h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 39¢ $20 7h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $12 19h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $41 29h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 37¢ $5 31h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 85¢ $29 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $47 33h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $10 2d
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 87¢ $27 2d
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 49¢ $15 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $60 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 4d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 24¢ $10 4d
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 30¢ $5 4d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 31¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.14 · official $178.14 (match) · 773 history records