Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:59:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

02
0x02d8…0c91
sports · 60 markets active 3d ago
0.0score
+$55,291 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$60,019 · open −$5,648
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$75,590
Realized+$60,019
Unrealized−$5,648
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses37 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$3,219
Open positions3
Markets (closed)57 / 60
History coverage116d
Avg bet$14,438
Trades / day29.2
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 3 History 57 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$9,702
30 days−$7,550
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 62¢ 57¢ $79,965 $74,332 −$5,634 (-7%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $964 $911 −$53 (-6%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $309 $348 +$39 (+12%)
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul Tommy Paul 60¢ $18,244 $0 −$18,244 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Yes 18¢ $6,000 $0 −$6,000 (-100%)
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi Rafael Jodar 62¢ $910 $0 −$910 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Jaume Munar Jaume Munar 49¢ $17,299 $0 −$17,299 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Ben Shelton Ben Shelton 79¢ $4,283 $0 −$4,283 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Rafael Jodar 26¢ $920 $0 −$920 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Blockx (-1.5) vs Cina (+1.5) Blockx 56¢ $15,814 $0 −$15,814 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Darderi (+1.5) Jodar 46¢ $625 $0 −$625 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) Jodar 54¢ $1,244 $0 −$1,244 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Darderi (+1.5) Zverev 69¢ $104 $0 −$104 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $922 −$920 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $18,246 −$18,244 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $8,785 +$9,462 +108%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $16,799 +$3,033 +18%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? May 22 $223 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 21 $17,975 +$654 +4%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi May 13 $917 −$910 -99%
Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Darderi (+1.5) May 13 $633 −$625 -99%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31? May 13 $355 +$40 +11%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Darderi (+1.5) May 12 $104 −$104 -100%
Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5) May 12 $57 +$47 +82%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar May 11 $63,297 +$17,581 +28%
Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) May 10 $1,244 −$1,244 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Ben Shelton May 09 $4,293 −$4,283 -100%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) May 08 $19,011 +$5,947 +31%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Daniel Altmaier vs Alexander Zverev May 08 $38,968 +$4,687 +12%
Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Borges (+1.5) May 08 $16,222 +$11,666 +72%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Nuno Borges vs Rafael Jodar May 08 $20,138 +$9,952 +49%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 08 $54,323 −$5,901 -11%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Federico Cina vs Alexander Blockx May 07 $11,130 +$14,165 +127%
Set Handicap: Blockx (-1.5) vs Cina (+1.5) May 07 $15,814 −$15,814 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Jaume Munar May 06 $22,133 −$17,299 -78%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 06 $42,573 +$2,693 +6%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $6,148 −$6,000 -98%
Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Zverev (+1.5) May 03 $22,779 +$4,021 +18%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev May 03 $3,800 +$200 +5%
Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs Zverev May 03 $26,467 +$7,480 +28%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Rafael Jodar Apr 29 $22,421 +$5,259 +24%
Madrid Open: Vit Kopriva vs Rafael Jodar Apr 28 $28,109 +$6,738 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $25,964 +$3,526 +14%
Madrid Open: Adolfo Vallejo vs Grigor Dimitrov Apr 23 $6,032 −$6,032 -100%
Madrid Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Apr 23 $15,641 +$11,321 +72%
Madrid Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Marcos Giron Apr 23 $15,622 +$1,751 +11%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 21 $23,348 +$2,993 +13%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 16 $19,645 +$3,708 +19%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 08 $10,945 +$1,216 +11%
Miami Open: Alex Michelsen vs Jannik Sinner Apr 02 $290 −$290 -100%
Miami Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Tommy Paul Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Apr 01 $29,883 +$1,840 +6%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 19 $6,788 +$1,030 +15%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $13,106 +$2,745 +21%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? Mar 18 $20,440 −$20,440 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 18 $26,810 −$26,810 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $2,765 +$3,855 +139%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 17 $9,073 +$103 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 16 $107 +$13 +12%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? Mar 16 $8,452 +$506 +6%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 08 $6,415 +$370 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 47% +$971
sports 46% +$54,649
other 7% −$1,290
tech 0% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 3d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $984 3d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $318 3d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 3d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 24¢ $90 10d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $235 10d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $261 10d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $53 10d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $742 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 26¢ $832 10d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $2,894 10d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $23 10d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $0 10d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $0 10d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $490 10d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $4 10d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $37 10d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $91 10d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $99 10d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $85 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 63¢ $262 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 60¢ $12,021 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 60¢ $6 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 60¢ $200 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 60¢ $140 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 60¢ $2 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 60¢ $161 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 60¢ $13 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 60¢ $6 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 -41.2% -46.8% 33% 22% -20.1%
≤90d 49 -14.7% -22.9% 61% 49% -7.8%
all 57 -2.5% -11.8% 65% 53% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover29.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 53% -2.5%
10% -20.3% 32% -11.8%
15% ← realistic here -28.0% 21% -20.3%
20% -35.0% 19% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75,590.26 · official $75,590.26 (match) · 3500 history records