Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:00:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02d7…f14f crypto 1604 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$22,037 (-10%) realized −$22,125 · open +$88
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%843W / 864L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day55.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15,719
7 days−$16,523
14 days−$15,991
30 days−$15,756
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$4,380
other 10% +$956
sports 0% +$147
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 401 -34.4% -40.7% 34% 31% -34.1%
≤30d 843 -15.2% -23.3% 45% 41% -24.3%
≤90d 1707 -12.1% -20.5% 49% 44% -15.8%
all 1707 -12.1% -20.5% 49% 44% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.5% 44% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -28.1% 37% -23.9%
15% -35.0% 30% -31.2%
20% -41.4% 24% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$78 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$22,125
Unrealized+$88
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses843 / 864
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1707 / 1604
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$136
Trades / day55.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1707 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Up 0¢ 48¢ $0 $88 +$88 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $382 −$382 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $249 −$249 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $78 −$105 -135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $265 −$265 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $135 −$135 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $140 −$140 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$34 -2920%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$26 -255%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $287 −$287 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $108 −$278 -258%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $195 −$195 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $53 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $84 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $52 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $30 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $201 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $153 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $42 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $21 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $201 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $51 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $52 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $47 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $62 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $51 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $50 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $63 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $128 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $7 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $51 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $17 58m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.96 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records