Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02d4…d26c other 441 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$7,271 (+11%) realized +$7,315 · open −$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%80W / 578L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day74.4pace
Fees−$93est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$677now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 45d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$2,874
sports 6% +$784
world 3% +$14
crypto 1% −$664
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-49.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 324 -67.5% -70.6% 6% 6% -57.7%
≤30d 454 -54.1% -58.4% 10% 10% -34.9%
≤90d 658 -43.9% -49.2% 12% 12% -29.9%
all 658 -43.9% -49.2% 12% 12% -29.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -49.2% 12% -29.9%
10% ← realistic here -54.1% 12% -36.6%
15% -58.5% 12% -42.7%
20% -62.6% 12% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -23% → late -65% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$580 vs −$112 · ×5.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$677
Realized+$7,315
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses80 / 578
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$93
Open positions5
Markets (closed)658 / 441
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$150
Trades / day74.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 658 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $368 $322 −$46 (-13%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $148 $158 +$10 (+7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $93 $82 −$10 (-11%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $66 $70 +$4 (+7%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $45 $44 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 495 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-02? Jun 18 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-24? Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Henan FC win on 2026-04-18? Jun 18 $76 −$35 -46%
Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-03-06? Jun 18 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Kawasaki Frontale vs. Kashima Antlers end in a draw? Jun 18 $112 −$112 -100%
Spread: Perth Glory FC (-1.5) Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-19? Jun 18 $134 −$114 -85%
Real Betis Balompié leading at halftime? Jun 18 $116 −$116 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 18 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-03-31? Jun 18 $30 −$8 -27%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-04-25? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. AS Roma end in a draw? Jun 18 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Jun 18 $99 −$99 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-02? Jun 18 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-03? Jun 18 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-05-03? Jun 18 $57 −$57 -100%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol leading at halftime? Jun 18 $123 −$123 -100%
Le Havre AC leading at halftime? Jun 18 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 18 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Western Sydney Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-25? Jun 18 $134 −$134 -100%
Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2026-04-12? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Levante UD vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Cagliari Calcio leading at halftime? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid leading at halftime? Jun 18 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-04-19? Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Pisa SC leading at halftime? Jun 18 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Jun 18 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-04-03? Jun 18 $247 −$247 -100%
Spread: Auckland FC (-1.5) Jun 18 $54 −$54 -100%
Spread: Leyton Orient FC (-1.5) Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-04? Jun 18 $54 +$10 +18%
FC Nantes leading at halftime? Jun 18 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-04-12? Jun 18 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-02-26? Jun 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-03-07? Jun 18 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-25? Jun 18 $117 −$117 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-02-22? Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-11? Jun 18 $68 −$68 -100%
FC Metz leading at halftime? Jun 18 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC win on 2026-03-22? Jun 18 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Damac Saudi Club vs. Al Riyadh Saudi Club end in a draw? Jun 18 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-04-04? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Will FC Seoul win on 2026-03-18? Jun 18 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-04-26? Jun 18 $69 −$69 -100%
Torino FC leading at halftime? Jun 18 $143 −$143 -100%
Will Villarreal CF vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-04-29? Jun 18 $80 −$80 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $459 1h
Spread: Panama (-1.5) BUY Panama 11¢ $48 3h
Panama leading at halftime? BUY Yes 24¢ $368 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $85 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 5h
England leading at halftime? BUY No 19¢ $41 5h
England leading at halftime? BUY No 20¢ $51 5h
England leading at halftime? BUY No 19¢ $6 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 23¢ $246 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 23¢ $73 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 8h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 17¢ $261 8h
Portugal leading at halftime? AND Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a BUY 4¢ $21 8h
DR Congo leading at halftime? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 4¢ $15 8h
DR Congo leading at halftime? BUY Yes 9¢ $139 8h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 7¢ $36 9h
Croatia leading at halftime? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 3¢ $15 9h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 19h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 15¢ $3 20h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY No 11¢ $30 20h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY No 11¢ $0 20h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY No 11¢ $0 20h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY No 11¢ $25 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 15¢ $103 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $102 21h
Jordan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $185 21h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 17¢ $102 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 18¢ $57 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $676.54 · official $676.54 (match) · 3500 history records