Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:24:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

02 0x02d1…4210 other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)

Total PnL +$394 (+33%) realized +$394 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +152% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +119% what you keep after slip

Net edge+119%after slip

Net WR27%break-even

Win rate31%8W / 18L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$46per market

Trades / day5.4pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$80

7 days−$100

14 days−$16

30 days+$49

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +27%

net ROI/market (all)+127.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+250.0%	+216.7%	17%	17%	-92.7%
≤30d	26	+151.7%	+127.7%	31%	27%	-10.6%
≤90d	26	+151.7%	+127.7%	31%	27%	-10.6%
all	26	+151.7%	+127.7%	31%	27%	-10.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+127.7%	27%	-10.6%
10%	+105.9%	27%	-19.2%
15%	+86.0%	27%	-27.0%
20%	+67.8%	23%	-34.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 53% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

12% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +152% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +216% → late +88% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$65 vs −$26 · ×2.48 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.1 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage

Net worth$107

Realized+$394

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)31%

Wins / losses8 / 18

Open positions4

Markets (closed)26 / 26

History coverage22d

Avg bet$46

Trades / day5.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 26 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	Yes	59¢	61¢	$88	$91	+$2 (+3%)
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Yes	31¢	34¢	$5	$6	+$1 (+10%)
Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$6	$5	−$1 (-13%)
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	No	64¢	68¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+6%)
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	No	44¢	39¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-11%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi	Jun 23	$0	−$10	-3762%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi	Jun 23	$10	−$10	-100%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world	Jun 23	$29	−$29	-100%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world	Jun 23	$0	−$10	-3762%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi	Jun 23	$29	−$29	-100%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi	Jun 23	$29	−$29	-100%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi	Jun 22	$0	+$37	+8233%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi	Jun 18	$20	−$20	-98%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi	Jun 16	$0	$0	-100%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi	Jun 16	$17	−$17	-97%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi	Jun 15	$118	+$273	+232%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid	Jun 15	$188	−$172	-91%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi	Jun 09	$1	−$29	-5295%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid	Jun 09	$64	−$4	-6%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi	Jun 09	$5	+$163	+3048%
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw	Jun 08	$32	+$23	+70%
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi	Jun 07	$3	+$10	+384%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world	Jun 07	$8	+$5	+70%
Will there be 14 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw	Jun 07	$10	−$10	-97%
Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw	Jun 07	$59	−$7	-12%
Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw	Jun 07	$10	−$9	-90%
Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw	Jun 07	$58	−$55	-94%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi	Jun 07	$17	+$1	+6%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi	Jun 07	$1	−$11	-1737%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi	Jun 06	$65	−$19	-29%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi	Jun 05	$17	+$6	+36%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw	BUY Yes	65¢	$37	1h
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwid	BUY No	64¢	$5	4d
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw	BUY Yes	56¢	$45	5d
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw	BUY Yes	55¢	$6	5d
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwid	SELL Yes	34¢	$4	5d
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwid	SELL Yes	34¢	$12	5d
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi	BUY Yes	67¢	$20	5d
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	7d
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi	BUY Yes	1¢	$0	7d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi	BUY Yes	45¢	$17	7d
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwid	SELL Yes	28¢	$46	8d
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwid	BUY Yes	17¢	$13	8d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi	BUY Yes	88¢	$7	9d
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi	BUY No	98¢	$99	9d
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi	BUY No	98¢	$99	9d
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid	BUY No	88¢	$177	9d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi	BUY Yes	70¢	$7	10d
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwid	SELL Yes	31¢	$9	11d
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwid	SELL Yes	30¢	$3	11d
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwid	SELL Yes	32¢	$2	11d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi	BUY Yes	55¢	$7	12d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi	BUY Yes	49¢	$38	13d
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw	BUY No	44¢	$1	13d
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwid	BUY Yes	23¢	$5	13d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi	BUY Yes	47¢	$40	13d
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid	BUY No	61¢	$4	14d
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid	BUY No	61¢	$6	14d
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	14d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi	BUY No	38¢	$11	14d
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid	BUY Yes	23¢	$1	15d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.11 · official $107.11 (match) · 141 history records