Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:59:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
02 0x02cf…cdf2 world 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 261d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate32%13W / 27L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$11
politics 17% $0
other 15% +$4
crypto 5% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +6.3% -3.8% 100% 50% -8.1%
≤30d 13 -0.9% -10.4% 46% 15% -7.5%
≤90d 14 -0.9% -10.3% 43% 14% -7.7%
all 40 +1.3% -8.3% 32% 8% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 8% -8.3%
10% -17.1% 2% -17.1%
15% -25.1% 2% -25.1%
20% -32.4% 2% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×5.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.98 per $1 lost it wins $5.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

261d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage261d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 40¢ 45¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $55 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +12%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 27 $1 $0 -7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $4 −$2 -39%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $1 $0 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $78 +$2 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $84 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $97 +$4 +5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $51 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $24 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 20 $32 +$6 +17%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 19 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 13 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? Oct 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on October 11? Oct 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 11 $9 $0 -5%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $16 $0 -1%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Oct 08 $25 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Oct 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan? Oct 07 $43 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Oct 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $25 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 06 $19 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $23 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $51 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 04 $25 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? Oct 02 $25 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $26 $0 -0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 30 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $55 34m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $55 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 22h
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 22d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $13 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $24 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $37 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 40¢ $15 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 40¢ $23 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 40¢ $19 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 38¢ $54 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $14 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $44 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $25 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $25 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $5 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $12 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $28 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $6 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.33 · official $0.03 (match) · 134 history records