Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:48:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02cd…5a5d other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 332d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate30%11W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% −$2
other 26% $0
politics 14% −$1
sports 11% $0
tech 7% $0
crypto 6% −$1
culture 5% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 -1.2% -10.6% 40% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 10 -1.2% -10.6% 40% 0% -10.0%
all 37 -0.5% -10.0% 30% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 3% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

332d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses11 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage332d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 93¢ 93¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $105 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $36 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $38 −$2 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $10 −$1 -8%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 31 $3 +$1 +19%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Jul 28 $4 −$1 -16%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Jul 28 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 28 $5 $0 -1%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 28 $65 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 27 $58 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 27 $62 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jul 27 $61 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? Jul 27 $7 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 27 $66 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in July? Jul 27 $66 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 26 $55 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 26 $19 −$2 -8%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 26 $65 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jul 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 26 $65 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jul 26 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 25 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $36 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 7d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 7d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 7d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $30 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $6 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $36 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $21 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $12 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $32 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $35 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $11 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $26 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $37 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $18 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $15 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $33 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $3 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $30 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $33 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $8 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $28 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $38 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $18 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $18 10d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $34 13d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $34 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.27 · official $36.27 (match) · 136 history records