Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:15:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
02 0x02cd…40c9 crypto 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$51 (+0%) realized +$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%86W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$477per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$543now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$58
other 5% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 14 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 57 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 87 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$524) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$13 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.78 per $1 lost it wins $4.78
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$543
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses86 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)87 / 89
History coverage141d
Avg bet$477
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $536 $536 +$0 (+0%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 93¢ 95¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $536 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $535 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $535 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $534 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $533 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $533 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $532 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $532 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $531 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $531 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $530 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? May 27 $529 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? May 25 $529 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 24 $528 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 23 $528 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $527 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 19 $527 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $527 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 15 $526 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 14 $525 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 12 $524 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? May 11 $524 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? May 10 $523 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? May 09 $522 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 8? May 08 $522 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? May 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 7? May 07 $521 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 06 $520 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5? May 05 $519 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4? May 04 $518 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4? May 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 3? May 03 $518 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $434 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 27? Apr 30 $522 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 26? Apr 27 $522 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $521 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 22? Apr 23 $521 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $520 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $520 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $519 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $518 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $516 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $514 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $514 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $511 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 13? Apr 14 $509 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $509 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $508 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $536 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $536 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $535 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $535 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $534 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $533 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $533 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $5 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $532 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $532 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $531 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $531 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $530 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $529 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $529 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $528 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $528 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $527 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $527 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $527 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $526 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $525 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $524 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $524 46d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $523 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $522 48d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $5 49d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $522 49d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 7? BUY No 100¢ $521 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $542.99 · official $542.99 (match) · 179 history records