Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:32:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02cc…a5f7 sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$9 (-7%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%5W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$7
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$5
other 31% −$7
politics 14% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -11.4% -19.8% 29% 29% -16.8%
≤30d 19 -11.8% -20.2% 26% 26% -16.2%
≤90d 19 -11.8% -20.2% 26% 26% -16.2%
all 19 -11.8% -20.2% 26% 26% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 26% -16.2%
10% -27.8% 16% -24.2%
15% -34.8% 11% -31.5%
20% -41.2% 11% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses5 / 14
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage19d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Valorant: Chivas Esports vs Contra (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Season Chivas Esports 71¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 +$4 +63%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$7 -33%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +10%
Australia to score first vs. Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 $0 -14%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $4 $0 -4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 $0 -2%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 −$1 -17%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 −$7 -37%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $17 +$3 +20%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $6 +$2 +32%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 03 $3 +$2 +61%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 03 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $6 $0 -5%
Valorant: Chivas Esports vs Contra (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Re May 27 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $2 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 31m
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 31m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 32m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 34m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 45m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $6 45m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 52¢ $1 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $1 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $2 16h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 16h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $9 17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 48¢ $9 17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 18h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $9 18h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 18h
Australia to score first vs. Türkiye? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 18h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 56¢ $1 18h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 19h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1 19h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 19h
Australia to score first vs. Türkiye? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 19h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 83¢ $4 19h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score SELL No 68¢ $4 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.97 · official $1.97 (match) · 71 history records