Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:54:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
02 0x02ca…30f9 sports 184 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,866 (-11%) realized −$4,206 · open −$660
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%101W / 75L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$375est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,840now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,143
7 days−$6,678
14 days−$1,993
30 days−$1,811
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$134
other 26% −$1,671
world 7% −$1,500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -56.1% -60.3% 19% 19% -65.7%
≤30d 24 -21.2% -28.7% 42% 42% -18.2%
≤90d 101 -5.2% -14.2% 50% 48% -16.9%
all 176 +4.2% -5.7% 57% 55% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 55% -15.4%
10% -14.7% 44% -23.5%
15% -23.0% 36% -30.9%
20% -30.5% 31% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +18% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$146 vs −$228 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$1,840
Realized−$4,206
Unrealized−$660
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses101 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$375
Open positions2
Markets (closed)176 / 184
History coverage129d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $2,000 $1,447 −$553 (-28%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 49¢ 38¢ $500 $393 −$107 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Will Canada win on Jun 19 $510 +$1,081 +212%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $1,017 +$1,303 +128%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $512 −$500 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,521 −$1,500 -99%
Spread: Italy (-1.5) Jun 14 $203 −$203 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Jun 14 $297 −$297 -100%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $304 −$304 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 14 $505 −$505 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 14 $306 −$306 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Jun 14 $478 −$478 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers Jun 14 $266 −$266 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,010 −$1,010 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,216 −$1,216 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,519 −$1,519 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 14 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,514 +$660 +44%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,014 +$836 +82%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2,805 +$3,189 +114%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $606 +$266 +44%
Türkiye vs. North Macedonia: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $506 +$338 +67%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $304 +$241 +79%
BK Hacken vs. Hammarby IF: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $405 +$236 +58%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $919 −$900 -98%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 15 $607 −$33 -5%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets May 03 $260 −$86 -33%
76ers vs. Celtics May 02 $224 −$71 -32%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 27 $276 +$385 +140%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 26 $328 −$328 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 26 $663 −$663 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 26 $563 −$563 -100%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 26 $335 −$335 -100%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 25 $613 +$53 +9%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 25 $612 +$173 +28%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 25 $332 +$468 +141%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 21 $328 −$328 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $300 −$300 -100%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 21 $859 −$146 -17%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 21 $331 +$76 +23%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 18 $285 +$415 +146%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 17 $308 −$308 -100%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 17 $314 +$259 +83%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 17 $343 +$599 +174%
Hornets vs. Knicks Apr 13 $325 −$325 -100%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 13 $322 −$322 -100%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Apr 13 $327 −$327 -100%
Bucks vs. 76ers Apr 13 $323 +$36 +11%
Magic vs. Celtics Apr 13 $329 +$478 +146%
Pistons vs. Hornets Apr 11 $317 −$317 -100%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Apr 11 $317 −$317 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $508 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND Will United States win on BUY 20¢ $614 20h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 25h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Will Canada win on BUY 31¢ $510 39h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Colo BUY 17¢ $512 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 33¢ $510 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 43¢ $1,017 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AN BUY 26¢ $1,533 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $512 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,521 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 40¢ $1,018 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Will Nether BUY 25¢ $511 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $1,010 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,519 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $306 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,514 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 100¢ $1,850 9d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $2,055 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $1,014 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 100¢ $5,994 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $2,805 14d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 55¢ $1,216 15d
Spread: Italy (-1.5) BUY Italy 43¢ $203 16d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 64¢ $505 16d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 69¢ $606 16d
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $304 17d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 55¢ $304 18d
Türkiye vs. North Macedonia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $506 18d
BK Hacken vs. Hammarby IF: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $405 19d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $1,020 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,839.92 · official $1,839.92 (match) · 721 history records