Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:33:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02c7…3c0d sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$259 (-44%) realized −$230 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 138d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$203
other 12% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-43.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -22.7% -30.0% 50% 50% -48.7%
≤30d 6 -22.7% -30.0% 50% 50% -48.7%
≤90d 6 -22.7% -30.0% 50% 50% -48.7%
all 9 -37.3% -43.3% 33% 33% -62.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.3% 33% -62.4%
10% -48.7% 22% -66.0%
15% -53.7% 22% -69.3%
20% -58.2% 11% -72.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$59 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$230
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage138d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-3.5) France 33¢ 18¢ $61 $32 −$29 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 22 $55 −$54 -99%
Marozsan vs. Molcan: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 22 $75 −$74 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andres Andrade vs Colton Smith Jun 22 $52 +$23 +44%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mark Lajal vs Luka Pavlovic Jun 22 $44 +$9 +20%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $22 +$22 +101%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $56 −$56 -100%
Celtics vs. Rockets Feb 05 $100 −$99 -99%
Sam Hauser: Points O/U 10.5 Feb 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded? Feb 05 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 33¢ $62 2h
Spread: France (-3.5) SELL France 43¢ $62 2h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 36¢ $55 2h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Wil BUY 13¢ $55 7h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 56¢ $55 7h
Marozsan vs. Molcan: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 71¢ $75 11h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andres Andrade vs Colton Smith SELL Colton Smith 100¢ $75 11h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andres Andrade vs Colton Smith BUY Colton Smith 69¢ $52 11h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mark Lajal vs Luka Pavlovic SELL Luka Pavlovic 100¢ $52 11h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mark Lajal vs Luka Pavlovic BUY Luka Pavlovic 83¢ $44 12h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider SELL Clara Tauson 100¢ $44 12h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Clara Tauson 49¢ $22 14h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $56 24h
Celtics vs. Rockets SELL Celtics 41¢ $1 137d
Celtics vs. Rockets BUY Celtics 43¢ $1 137d
Sam Hauser: Points O/U 10.5 SELL Yes 1¢ $1 137d
Celtics vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 71¢ $99 137d
Sam Hauser: Points O/U 10.5 BUY Yes 1¢ $1 137d
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded? BUY No 38¢ $13 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.43 · official $32.43 (match) · 20 history records