Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:06:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
02 0x02c3…ae10 world 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 396d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate40%10W / 15L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$2
other 20% $0
politics 12% +$1
crypto 5% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 +94.5% +76.0% 50% 10% -8.7%
≤90d 10 +94.5% +76.0% 50% 10% -8.7%
all 25 +38.0% +24.8% 40% 4% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.8% 4% -8.8%
10% +12.9% 4% -17.5%
15% +2.0% 4% -25.5%
20% -8.0% 4% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +73% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

396d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses10 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage396d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $53 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $27 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $55 −$3 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $47 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $57 +$3 +5%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $7 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $39 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $2 $0 -8%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +5%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Jun 04 $5 $0 -1%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? Jun 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 03 $2 $0 -3%
Will Gregory Rusland be the next president of Suriname after the elect Jun 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? May 31 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 World Series? May 29 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? May 29 $22 $0 +0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%? May 28 $22 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 24 $22 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $53 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $5 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $6 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $6 15h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $6 15h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $28 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $27 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $52 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $6 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $49 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 90¢ $48 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 89¢ $47 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $60 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 59¢ $57 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes $1 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes $1 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes $0 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $7 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $7 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $12 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $29 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $9 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $5 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $10 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $15 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes $2 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes $1 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes $2 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.49 · official $52.49 (match) · 66 history records