Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:52:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02bf…6ea8 crypto 31 markets active 6d ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-1%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate77%24W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% −$4
crypto 20% $0
other 7% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -5.2% -14.2% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 6 -3.5% -12.7% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 22 -1.6% -10.9% 68% 0% -10.8%
all 31 -1.1% -10.5% 77% 0% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -10.7%
10% -19.0% 0% -19.2%
15% -26.9% 0% -27.0%
20% -34.0% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses24 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage96d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $166 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $124 $0 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $562 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 29 $139 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 03 $102 −$16 -15%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 9? May 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 8? Apr 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 7? Apr 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 3? Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April 2? Apr 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 1? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 30? Mar 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 27? Mar 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 25? Mar 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 23? Mar 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 21? Mar 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 20? Mar 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on March 19? Mar 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on March 17? Mar 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 14? Mar 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 13? Mar 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on March 11? Mar 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 9? Mar 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 8? Mar 09 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $165 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $110 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $56 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $17 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $86 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $20 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $124 5d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL No 93¢ $304 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL No 93¢ $24 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL No 93¢ $232 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 93¢ $187 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 94¢ $187 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 94¢ $188 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $66 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $119 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $139 19d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $139 19d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $32 45d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $49 69d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 69d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $11 70d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $13 75d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $10 77d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $14 78d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records