Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:05:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02be…fa1d weather 763 markets active 0h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$73 (-2%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate64%456W / 262L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$264now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$70
14 days−$155
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 76% −$42
sports 17% +$56
other 4% −$23
world 2% −$7
politics 1% −$3
crypto 0% −$3
tech 0% −$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +51.9% +37.4% 74% 43% +12.5%
≤30d 208 -18.7% -26.4% 62% 27% -15.0%
≤90d 368 -4.1% -13.2% 77% 41% -7.2%
all 718 -11.4% -19.9% 64% 31% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 31% -10.0%
10% -27.5% 12% -18.6%
15% -34.5% 8% -26.5%
20% -41.0% 6% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$264
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses456 / 262
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions41
Markets (closed)718 / 763
History coverage158d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 718 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $59 $58 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+14%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $15 $16 +$2 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? No 89¢ 86¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 17? No 92¢ 93¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? No 91¢ 92¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? No 88¢ 64¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-28%)
Nottingham 2: Roman Safiullin vs August Holmgren Roman Safiullin 67¢ 100¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+49%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-14%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 29¢ 25¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-13%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 65¢ 98¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+52%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-19%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $4 +$4 (+350%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 45¢ 44¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 21¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+9%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score No 56¢ 56¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Over 37¢ 36¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 33¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-15%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Under 48¢ 44¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +5%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $3 +$3 +93%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 +$23 +317%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$8 +354%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +19%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$2 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $16 +$1 +9%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$5 +85%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$5 +233%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $6 +$4 +67%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -46%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AN Jun 14 $5 +$53 +1041%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 +$1 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $31 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $7 +$10 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 96°F or higher on June 10? Jun 11 $8 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $7 +$2 +22%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $15 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 10 $8 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $11 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $11 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on February Jun 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C or higher on May 12? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Thunder vs. Suns Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 10? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 13? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on April 26? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 15? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Madrid Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 23m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $3 37m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $1 42m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $11 1h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 3h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia BUY 6¢ $4 3h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $15 6h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 6h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 6h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 6h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 6h
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $4 7h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $0 7h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys SELL Eva Lys 65¢ $1 7h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys SELL Eva Lys 65¢ $5 7h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 33¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $11 8h
Nottingham 2: Roman Safiullin vs August Holmgren BUY Roman Safiullin 67¢ $7 9h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $15 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 11h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $3 13h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 16h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 26h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $0 27h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $2 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $264.11 · official $271.07 · 2226 history records