Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:25:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02bc…6e75 crypto 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$27 (+2%) realized +$41 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%14W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$66
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$60
crypto 13% +$45
sports 3% +$12
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -18.5% -26.3% 25% 25% -16.1%
≤30d 54 -20.0% -27.7% 26% 26% -9.0%
≤90d 54 -20.0% -27.7% 26% 26% -9.0%
all 54 -20.0% -27.7% 26% 26% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.7% 26% -9.0%
10% -34.6% 24% -17.7%
15% -40.9% 22% -25.7%
20% -46.7% 20% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -73% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$12 · ×2.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$41
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses14 / 40
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)54 / 56
History coverage8d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 69¢ 52¢ $60 $45 −$15 (-25%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $112 +$43 +38%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $115 +$18 +16%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$115 +1799%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$11 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $13 −$12 -94%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$6 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$37 +365%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $41 +$59 +146%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$23 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 31h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $25 31h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $25 31h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 85¢ $45 33h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $67 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 98¢ $80 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $35 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.74 · official $50.74 (match) · 92 history records