Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:19:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02b4…3908 other 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 354d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$298 (-5%) realized −$340 · open +$42
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate40%27W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$482now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$94
7 days−$94
14 days−$94
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$96
sports 36% −$133
politics 20% +$6
crypto 3% −$56
culture 2% −$107
world 2% −$23
finance 1% +$17
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -21.2% -28.7% 25% 0% -37.8%
≤30d 5 -37.0% -43.0% 20% 0% -38.2%
≤90d 9 -29.3% -36.0% 33% 11% -11.2%
all 68 -23.5% -30.7% 40% 25% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.7% 25% -16.5%
10% -37.4% 19% -24.5%
15% -43.4% 15% -31.8%
20% -49.0% 6% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$19 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

354d coverage
Net worth$482
Realized−$340
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses27 / 41
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)68 / 75
History coverage354d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $121 $104 −$16 (-14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $101 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $66 $78 +$13 (+19%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 19¢ $45 $78 +$33 (+72%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 15¢ $50 $76 +$26 (+51%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $47 $60 +$13 (+28%)
Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 Yes 35¢ 18¢ $10 $6 −$5 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $95 −$37 -39%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $104 −$40 -39%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $97 −$17 -17%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $3 $0 +10%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 08 $272 +$8 +3%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 3DMAX (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 31 $50 −$11 -22%
EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch? Mar 31 $233 +$94 +40%
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 25 $26 +$4 +15%
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 25 $62 +$1 +2%
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Mar 25 $69 +$3 +4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 25? Mar 25 $90 +$17 +19%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 23 $12 +$10 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 20 $33 +$30 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 20 $12 +$5 +37%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 20 $55 +$27 +49%
Texas Longhorns vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs Mar 20 $660 −$20 -3%
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers Mar 20 $570 −$10 -2%
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Tennessee Volunteers Mar 20 $850 −$100 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 16 $50 +$16 +32%
Flames vs. Capitals Mar 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Rangers vs. Flyers Mar 10 $30 +$38 +127%
Mavericks vs. Bucks Mar 06 $10 −$1 -6%
Kings vs. Blue Jackets Mar 06 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 04 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? Mar 01 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-17? Mar 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 11 $29 +$12 +40%
Superform FDV above $20M one day after launch? Feb 10 $12 −$9 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Felix Protocol FDV above $300M one day after launch? Feb 05 $138 −$116 -84%
Felix Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch? Feb 05 $150 −$51 -34%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 19 $10 $0 +5%
Will André Ventura qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal p Jan 15 $12 +$6 +49%
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? Jan 10 $11 $0 +4%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 03 $66 −$35 -52%
Will Hollow Knight: Silksong win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awa Jan 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Kingdom Come: Deliverance II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Gam Jan 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Hades II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? Jan 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Alicia Mertosieko win Miss France 2026? Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alice De Lima Guimaraes win Miss France 2026? Jan 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Ynès Lallemand win Miss France 2026? Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Victoire Dupuis win Miss France 2026? Dec 06 $0 $0 -60%
Will Hinaupoko Deveze win Miss France 2026? Dec 06 $1 +$2 +195%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $76 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $74 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $76 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $29 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $32 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $40 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $40 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $32 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $29 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 64¢ $3 46h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 9d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $18 9d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $18 9d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 9d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $47 11d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 11d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 24d
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 37¢ $279 79d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 3DMAX (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage BUY PARIVISION 53¢ $11 80d
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 82d
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 36¢ $126 82d
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 36¢ $145 82d
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL No 39¢ $39 87d
EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch? SELL Yes 80¢ $326 87d
EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 57¢ $233 87d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $30 89d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 89d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 89d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $95 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $482.11 · official $482.11 (match) · 386 history records