Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:22:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02b1…3891 crypto 885 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d only
✗ bot/MM pace (184 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$175 (-3%) realized −$169 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate65%572W / 312L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day184.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$286
7 days−$261
14 days−$735
30 days−$223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$147
other 4% −$98
sports 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (184 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 219 -22.0% -29.4% 42% 30% -22.3%
≤30d 884 -3.8% -13.0% 65% 46% -12.8%
≤90d 884 -3.8% -13.0% 65% 46% -12.8%
all 884 -3.8% -13.0% 65% 46% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover184.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 46% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 22% -21.1%
15% -28.9% 12% -28.7%
20% -35.9% 8% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$169
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses572 / 312
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)884 / 885
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day184.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 884 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$5 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $6 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.06 (match) · 3500 history records