Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:18:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02ae…bad5 sports 605 markets active 0h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,126 (-9%) realized −$1,353 · open +$227
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate61%325W / 212L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$2,524now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$280
7 days−$308
14 days−$1,176
30 days−$1,535
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% +$65
politics 20% +$135
crypto 15% −$1,011
tech 15% −$617
other 9% +$72
sports 4% +$10
finance 3% −$20
economics 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -26.8% -33.7% 40% 30% -24.7%
≤30d 65 +18.4% +7.1% 55% 34% -26.9%
≤90d 208 -40.2% -45.9% 32% 19% -23.4%
all 537 -3.6% -12.8% 61% 53% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 53% -21.9%
10% -21.1% 46% -29.4%
15% -28.7% 32% -36.2%
20% -35.7% 18% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$12 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$2,524
Realized−$1,353
Unrealized+$227
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses325 / 212
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions68
Markets (closed)537 / 605
History coverage152d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 68 History 537 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 16¢ 18¢ $560 $604 +$44 (+8%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes $94 $167 +$73 (+77%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes $99 $92 −$7 (-7%)
Will the Republican Party hold between 220 and 224 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes $90 $89 −$2 (-2%)
Blue wave in 2026? No 27¢ 27¢ $86 $87 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $60 $76 +$16 (+27%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 10¢ $72 $76 +$4 (+5%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 36¢ 33¢ $82 $74 −$7 (-9%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 90¢ $56 $74 +$18 (+32%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 67¢ 78¢ $61 $72 +$10 (+17%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $51 $63 +$12 (+23%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $59 $63 +$3 (+5%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes $51 $57 +$5 (+10%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 56 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by December 31? No 78¢ 87¢ $43 $48 +$5 (+12%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 12¢ 12¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 37¢ 49¢ $35 $47 +$12 (+34%)
Will the Republican Party hold between 225 and 229 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes $30 $47 +$17 (+58%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No $49 $45 −$3 (-7%)
2026 Balance of Power: Other Yes $47 $45 −$2 (-5%)
Will the Republican Party hold between 215 and 219 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 10¢ $39 $43 +$4 (+11%)
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $25 $36 +$10 (+41%)
Will the Republican Party hold 230 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes $22 $33 +$11 (+48%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 51¢ 56¢ $26 $28 +$2 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $467 −$164 -35%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $269 −$55 -20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 13 $916 −$38 -4%
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Jun 12 $17 +$3 +16%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $61 +$2 +3%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $3 +$4 +120%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $33 +$6 +19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 07 $65 +$21 +33%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $60 +$31 +52%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on Jun 06 $14 +$11 +77%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 05 $39 $0 +1%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 02 $25 +$6 +24%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $111 +$8 +7%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $424 −$420 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $534 −$525 -98%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $133 +$17 +13%
Kash Patel out by May 31? Jun 01 $80 +$8 +10%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 31 $105 +$15 +14%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 31 $25 +$2 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $461 +$32 +7%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-Jun May 30 $8 −$4 -51%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 30 $20 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $204 +$36 +18%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $70 +$5 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 30 $20 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $60 +$8 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $120 +$12 +10%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $7 +$3 +36%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 26 $1 −$1 -99%
Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 26 $1 −$1 -78%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 26 $10 −$8 -83%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 26 $18 −$8 -41%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 26 $9 −$1 -13%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o May 26 $11 −$10 -92%
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May May 26 $2 +$1 +28%
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 25 $3 +$1 +47%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 25 $10 +$8 +77%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? May 24 $160 +$27 +17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $35 +$6 +18%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on May 23 $5 +$1 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $60 +$4 +7%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? May 23 $5 +$2 +45%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode? May 23 $540 −$477 -88%
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a success May 22 $420 −$148 -35%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $280 +$20 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $8 15m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $24 15m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $7 29m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $13 31m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No $6 34m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $20 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $13 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $14 1h
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House BUY Yes $0 3h
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House BUY Yes $0 3h
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House BUY Yes $0 3h
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House BUY Yes $0 3h
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House BUY Yes $0 3h
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House BUY Yes $0 3h
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House BUY Yes $0 6h
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House BUY Yes $0 6h
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House BUY Yes $0 6h
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House BUY Yes $0 8h
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House BUY Yes $0 11h
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House BUY Yes $0 16h
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House BUY Yes $0 16h
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House BUY Yes $0 16h
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House BUY Yes $0 16h
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House BUY Yes $0 18h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 77¢ $101 21h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $11 24h
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House BUY Yes $0 24h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL Yes 17¢ $96 24h
Will John Barrasso be the next Senate Majority Leader? BUY Yes $0 24h
Will John Barrasso be the next Senate Majority Leader? BUY Yes $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,524.23 · official $2,524.31 (match) · 2534 history records