Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:21:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02ac…c33a other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$10 (-16%) realized −$9 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%6W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$11
sports 15% +$5
world 5% −$2
crypto 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -19.3% -26.9% 32% 32% -43.7%
≤30d 19 -19.3% -26.9% 32% 32% -43.7%
≤90d 19 -19.3% -26.9% 32% 32% -43.7%
all 19 -19.3% -26.9% 32% 32% -43.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.9% 32% -43.7%
10% -33.9% 32% -49.1%
15% -40.3% 32% -54.0%
20% -46.2% 21% -58.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -55% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses6 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions20
Markets (closed)19 / 39
History coverage5d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +291%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +291%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $3 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 4d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.39 · official $34.39 (match) · 45 history records