Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
02 0x02ab…cda4 sports 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$553 (+6%) realized +$624 · open −$71
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%53W / 50L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$255
7 days+$255
14 days+$255
30 days+$397
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$766
sports 24% +$526
world 20% +$221
politics 12% +$490
culture 5% −$528
crypto 5% −$16
economics 4% +$546
finance 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +108.0% +88.2% 83% 83% +69.5%
≤30d 11 +78.8% +61.8% 73% 73% +16.2%
≤90d 31 +35.3% +22.5% 61% 61% +0.4%
all 103 +14.3% +3.4% 51% 51% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.4% 51% -4.6%
10% -6.5% 48% -13.7%
15% -15.5% 41% -22.1%
20% -23.8% 31% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$67 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$624
Unrealized−$71
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses53 / 50
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)103 / 107
History coverage274d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference? Yes 68¢ 26¢ $34 $13 −$21 (-63%)
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference? Yes 87¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+15%)
Will Warsh say "Job" 15+ times during June Press Conference? Yes 48¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-99%)
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference? Yes 54¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $26 +$74 +291%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $41 +$55 +134%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 +$44 +109%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $61 +$82 +134%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $69 +$55 +79%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $72 +$39 +55%
Roland Garros WTA: Katie Boulter vs Anastasia Potapova May 28 $341 +$91 +27%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 22 $541 −$215 -40%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $100 +$277 +277%
Seattle Storm vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 177.5 May 18 $70 +$55 +79%
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 16 $178 −$175 -98%
Washington Mystics vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 171.5 May 15 $162 −$161 -99%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $28 +$122 +426%
Will Anastasia Potapova win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Apr 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $129 +$198 +154%
Will Trump say "Objective" or "Goal" 3+ times during Address to the Na Apr 16 $42 +$17 +40%
Will Trump say "Proxy" or "Hezbollah" during Address to the Nation? Apr 16 $50 +$19 +39%
Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" during Address to the Nation? Apr 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Natio Apr 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Mar 24 $50 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 24 $50 +$25 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Mar 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Zheng (+1.5) Mar 23 $50 +$24 +47%
Anisimova vs. Bencic: Match O/U 21.5 Mar 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Mar 22 $50 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Mar 22 $50 +$68 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Mar 22 $50 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Mar 22 $100 −$14 -14%
Timberwolves vs. Clippers: O/U 227.5 Mar 12 $55 −$55 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Jessica Pegula vs Belinda Bencic Mar 11 $50 −$50 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Talia Gibson vs Jasmine Paolini Mar 11 $50 +$142 +285%
BNP Paribas Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Taylor Townsend Mar 05 $50 +$42 +85%
BNP Paribas Open: Terence Atmane vs Grigor Dimitrov Mar 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Thunder vs. Knicks Mar 05 $50 +$31 +61%
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026? Mar 04 $100 +$144 +144%
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Feb 27 $63 +$37 +58%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Robinhood be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Spurs vs. Pistons Feb 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Coinbase say "International" during earnings call? Feb 13 $25 +$24 +96%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 09 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $98 +$13 +13%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $50 +$24 +47%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 09 $50 +$24 +48%
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) Feb 09 $50 +$48 +96%
Spread: Seahawks (-5.5) Feb 09 $50 +$56 +113%
Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 120 and 130 seconds? Feb 08 $52 −$52 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 49m
Will Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 59m
Will Warsh say "Job" 15+ times during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 1h
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 87¢ $9 1h
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 54¢ $27 1h
Will Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 68¢ $28 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $41 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $41 21h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $61 45h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $69 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $56 2d
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 16d
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? BUY Yes 64¢ $32 16d
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? BUY Yes 64¢ $38 16d
Roland Garros WTA: Katie Boulter vs Anastasia Potapova BUY Anastasia Potapova 79¢ $341 20d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 46¢ $51 22d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $62 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? SELL Yes 98¢ $377 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY Yes 26¢ $100 29d
Seattle Storm vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 177.5 BUY Under 56¢ $70 31d
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? BUY Yes 69¢ $178 31d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $116 31d
Washington Mystics vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 171.5 BUY Under 55¢ $101 32d
Washington Mystics vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 171.5 BUY Under 56¢ $9 32d
Washington Mystics vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 171.5 BUY Under 56¢ $23 32d
Washington Mystics vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 171.5 BUY Under 56¢ $3 32d
Washington Mystics vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 171.5 BUY Under 56¢ $11 32d
Washington Mystics vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 171.5 BUY Under 56¢ $5 32d
Washington Mystics vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 171.5 BUY Under 56¢ $5 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.07 · official $23.07 (match) · 315 history records