Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:25:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02aa…f99b other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$289 (-1%) realized +$452 · open −$741
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,432per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Fees−$343est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$10,966now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$2,038
sports 34% −$1,515
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -24.3% -31.5% 20% 20% -18.9%
≤30d 10 -24.3% -31.5% 20% 20% -18.9%
≤90d 10 -24.3% -31.5% 20% 20% -18.9%
all 10 -24.3% -31.5% 20% 20% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.5% 20% -18.9%
10% -38.0% 20% -26.7%
15% ← realistic here -44.0% 20% -33.8%
20% -49.5% 20% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$309 vs −$429 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$10,966
Realized+$452
Unrealized−$741
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Est. fees paid−$343
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3,432
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Yes 45¢ 42¢ $11,707 $10,966 −$741 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $62 −$60 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $1,019 −$1,000 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $1,072 −$41 -4%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $508 +$533 +105%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals Jun 22 $509 −$500 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 22 $1,558 −$180 -12%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $12,022 −$515 -4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $131 −$131 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 22 $103 +$85 +82%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10,105 −$1,002 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $5,173 2h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $2,159 2h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $2,945 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 4¢ $62 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $1,019 3h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals SELL Yes 42¢ $1,075 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score AND Will France win on 2026 BUY 42¢ $1,021 3h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 65¢ $1,031 3h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 66¢ $1,072 3h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $1,041 3h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $508 5h
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $509 5h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $1,423 9h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $1,374 9h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND SELL 34¢ $1,378 9h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 56¢ $11,507 10h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $12,022 10h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 10h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 10h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL 60¢ $9,103 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 65¢ $10,105 10h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 37¢ $1,558 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,965.57 · official $13,287.69 · 26 history records