Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:07:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
02 0x02aa…9c2a sports 1027 markets active 1h ago coverage 305d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$243 (+1%) realized +$243 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%615W / 412L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$75
14 days+$85
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$81
other 40% +$282
world 2% +$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +20.5% +9.0% 61% 61% +17.1%
≤30d 69 +4.7% -5.3% 54% 54% -2.9%
≤90d 284 -2.1% -11.4% 52% 52% -21.7%
all 1027 +1.5% -8.2% 60% 60% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 60% -8.5%
10% -17.0% 56% -17.3%
15% -25.0% 47% -25.3%
20% -32.3% 35% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$20 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

305d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$243
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses615 / 412
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1027 / 1027
History coverage305d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1027 Trades
no open positions (381 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $17 +$61 +351%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $5 +$7 +140%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $10 +$7 +73%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +97%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 +$4 +119%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $4 +$8 +197%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$6 +60%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$5 +50%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 +$6 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $7 +$4 +57%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$4 +36%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $7 +$7 +101%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$6 +60%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$7 +70%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $5 +$5 +93%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $8 +$4 +50%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 07 $3 +$3 +86%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $7 +$3 +44%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $8 +$5 +62%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 07 $15 +$6 +38%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 05 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs MIBR - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $10 +$4 +44%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? Jun 05 $15 +$9 +57%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $15 +$8 +55%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will PFK CSKA Moskva win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $3 +$4 +140%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $5 +$6 +109%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $6 +$5 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 39¢ $7 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 58¢ $2 1h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $5 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 50¢ $5 25h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 45¢ $3 25h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 62¢ $10 25h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $2 25h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 25h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 23¢ $3 25h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 57¢ $10 25h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 41¢ $5 25h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 18¢ $5 25h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $7 40h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $15 40h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $15 47h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $5 47h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 40¢ $7 47h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 33¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $7 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 62¢ $10 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $12 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 63¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Aurora Gaming 63¢ $7 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 73¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 62¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 58¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1827 history records