Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:44:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
02 0x02a9…54f5 crypto 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 501d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate82%40W / 9L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% +$1
other 29% $0
politics 7% $0
tech 4% +$1
sports 2% $0
economics 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 49 +0.2% -9.4% 82% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.15 per $1 lost it wins $4.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

501d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses40 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage501d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? Jun 03 $56 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? May 05 $34 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink dip to $4 in March? Apr 02 $49 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? Mar 03 $48 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Feb 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? Feb 02 $59 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? Jan 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in December? Jan 02 $57 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? Dec 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? Nov 03 $57 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in September? Oct 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? Oct 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August? Sep 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 02 $17 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? Aug 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jul 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jul 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 in May? Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? May 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? May 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? May 03 $10 $0 +1%
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May? May 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 16 $33 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 16 $30 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 10 $25 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Apr 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Mar 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 World Series? Mar 20 $17 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Mar 16 $19 $0 -0%
Will Trump post 140-159 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 04 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? Mar 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 04 $24 +$1 +3%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 18 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $63 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $16 30d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? BUY No 100¢ $56 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $21 60d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? BUY No 99¢ $34 62d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $20 91d
Will Chainlink dip to $4 in March? BUY No 100¢ $49 91d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $11 120d
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? BUY No 100¢ $16 121d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? BUY No 100¢ $48 122d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $13 150d
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? BUY No 100¢ $59 150d
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 181d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in December? BUY No 100¢ $57 181d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $36 211d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? BUY No 100¢ $14 241d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? BUY No 100¢ $42 242d
Will Solana reach $300 in September? BUY No 100¢ $15 273d
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $45 273d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $25 302d
Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August? BUY No 100¢ $33 303d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 99¢ $17 334d
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? BUY No 100¢ $36 334d
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? BUY No 100¢ $25 362d
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $22 363d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 392d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 393d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 394d
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? BUY No 100¢ $7 423d
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May? BUY No 100¢ $8 423d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.82 · official $62.82 (match) · 104 history records