Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:05:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02a9…aabe other 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$39 (-0%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$11
politics 30% −$9
sports 9% −$19
tech 4% −$1
crypto 3% $0
world 3% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 68 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 109 -2.9% -12.2% 11% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 3% -9.7%
10% -20.6% 1% -18.3%
15% -28.3% 1% -26.2%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 97
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage126d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $21 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $427 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $38 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $22 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $21 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $437 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $204 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $223 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $205 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 25 $198 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $226 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $170 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $170 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $198 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $165 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $192 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $203 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $223 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $221 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $163 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $199 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $210 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $228 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $168 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $202 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $406 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $176 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $208 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $223 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $353 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $162 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $204 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $432 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 12 $184 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 11 $210 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $180 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 08 $221 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $167 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $209 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $477 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $198 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 05 $241 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 05 $229 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $357 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $21 6h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $21 31h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 31h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 41h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 41h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 2d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 6d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 6d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 7d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 9d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 10d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 10d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 11d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $21 12d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $21 13d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 18d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 19d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 19d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 20d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $233 22d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $233 23d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $207 23d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $207 24d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $223 24d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $223 25d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $171 25d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $171 25d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $205 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.98 · official $32.98 (match) · 305 history records